TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykyta Smyrnov vs Nazar Kovalchuk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61116148111412119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:13 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 112 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 64.8%
112 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 19–45 Nazar Kovalchuk Mykyta Smyrnov has won 19 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-45 in 64
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 26 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1479 vs Kovalchuk 1683
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 204 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov +2 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 2.38 / Kovalchuk 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13213804
Smyrnov2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 81
Kovalchuk1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 168 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it73% 110 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov3wins
AwayKovalchuk7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov25%2 of 8
AwayKovalchukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov8Kovalchuk2n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Smyrnov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Smyrnov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Smyrnov3Kovalchuk6n = 9Kovalchuk took 6 of 9
S5Smyrnov1Kovalchuk4n = 5Kovalchuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovKovalchukS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.644.0−2.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 852 vs 404 / 77548.2%52.1%411 / 852 vs 404 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukSmyrnov 2.38/Kovalchuk 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 21:15M. Smyrnov401191191N. Kovalchuk4271113113
LSep 11 · 13:35M. Smyrnov4011661162N. Kovalchuk46611117113
WAug 26 · 03:15M. Smyrnov331111113N. Kovalchuk247890
LAug 24 · 22:15M. Smyrnov48111168122N. Kovalchuk54991111143
LAug 18 · 03:15M. Smyrnov37119981N. Kovalchuk4291111113
LAug 9 · 10:05M. Smyrnov359101241N. Kovalchuk44111210113
LAug 7 · 01:45M. Smyrnov4111911282N. Kovalchuk47711711113
WAug 5 · 23:15M. Smyrnov50911811113N. Kovalchuk4611811972
LJul 26 · 10:05M. Smyrnov5111716892N. Kovalchuk569111411113
WJul 25 · 19:05M. Smyrnov4111127113N. Kovalchuk399101191
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 30 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.1075120M. Smyrnov1.671111143WSep 29 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2091090M. Smyrnov1.611112113LSep 29 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.831181031O. Mitla1.8391112113LSep 29 · 21:15O. Hura1.8051112113M. Smyrnov1.911191061LSep 27 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.001111113M. Smyrnov1.737770LSep 27 · 10:05M. Smyrnov1.911161471O. Hura1.80131112113LSep 27 · 08:05V. Vlasenko2.20511711113M. Smyrnov1.6111411742LSep 27 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.3313511113M. Smyrnov3.251111691WSep 27 · 05:05V. Boyko1.7310490M. Smyrnov2.001211113WSep 26 · 03:00V. Boyko1.67751181M. Smyrnov2.1011117113
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 30 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.36101161162O. Mitla3.00124111113WSep 29 · 23:45O. Hura2.2013980N. Kovalchuk1.611511113LSep 29 · 21:45A. Shypilov1.91115129113N. Kovalchuk1.80611101192WSep 29 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.251111111072N. Kovalchuk1.57133712113WSep 28 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk1.57411711113O. Napirko2.2511811882WSep 28 · 01:00D. Neborak1.83951181N. Kovalchuk1.8311116113LSep 27 · 23:00S. Rak1.33312811113N. Kovalchuk3.25111011852LSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113WSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.40116991N. Kovalchuk2.7551111113WSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.3681111113O. Mitla3.00115641
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