TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Kotyk vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311511116119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kotyk to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kotyk above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Andrii Kotyk at 75.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kotyk 11–3 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kotyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Kotyk
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotyk 1664 vs Smyrnov 1497
Kotyk
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotyk 40% vs Smyrnov 60%
Smyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotyk 70% vs Smyrnov 40%
Kotyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotyk +1 · Smyrnov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kotyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotyk 1.33 / Smyrnov 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kotyk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13203178
Kotyk1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 64 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it86% 43 of 50
Smyrnov3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 240
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotyk8wins
AwaySmyrnov2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKotyk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotyk100%6 of 6
AwaySmyrnov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotyk6Smyrnov4n = 10Kotyk took 6 of 10
S2Kotyk8Smyrnov2n = 10Kotyk took 8 of 10
S3Kotyk6Smyrnov4n = 10Kotyk took 6 of 10
S4Kotyk3Smyrnov3n = 6split evenly
S5Kotyk3Smyrnov1n = 4Kotyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotykSmyrnovK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.934.3+6.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotykSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 340 vs 409 / 84548.5%48.4%165 / 340 vs 409 / 845Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotykKotyk 1.33/Smyrnov 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Kotyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kotyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 27 · 06:05A. Kotyk4013511113M. Smyrnov371111691
WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk361111143M. Smyrnov1916120
WAug 29 · 16:05A. Kotyk331111113M. Smyrnov195590
WAug 29 · 01:30A. Kotyk44711114113M. Smyrnov4611991162
WAug 23 · 04:35A. Kotyk4211118123M. Smyrnov357711101
LJul 26 · 06:35A. Kotyk2911990M. Smyrnov351311113
WJul 25 · 17:35A. Kotyk51911614113M. Smyrnov49117111282
LJul 21 · 23:45A. Kotyk4571111882M. Smyrnov39113311113
WJul 19 · 08:35A. Kotyk56151199123M. Smyrnov511361111102
WJul 17 · 21:00A. Kotyk331111113M. Smyrnov134360
A. Kotyk10
WSep 27 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.61118611113O. Hura2.2041111992LSep 20 · 10:35N. Kovalchuk1.831211113A. Kotyk1.8310870LSep 20 · 09:35A. Kotyk1.3321111472A. Shypilov3.25119711113WSep 20 · 08:35A. Kotyk1.801111113R. Lazebnyi1.918780LSep 20 · 07:05A. Kotyk1.3381020O. Mitla3.251112113WSep 20 · 05:05A. Kotyk1.531211113O. Napirko2.3810560WAug 30 · 10:35A. Kotyk1.5011114113V. Vlasenko2.50761181WAug 30 · 09:05A. Kotyk1.801111113O. Hura1.919750WAug 30 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.531113113Y. Shmyndra2.3851170WAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 27 · 05:05V. Boyko1.7310490M. Smyrnov2.001211113WSep 26 · 03:00V. Boyko1.67751181M. Smyrnov2.1011117113LSep 26 · 01:30M. Smyrnov2.2096100R. Lazebnyi1.611111123WSep 25 · 23:30O. Mitla1.83491161M. Smyrnov1.8311115113LSep 25 · 21:30O. Napirko1.611111113M. Smyrnov2.209950LSep 25 · 20:30V. Vlasenko2.20715115173M. Smyrnov1.611113911152LSep 25 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi1.611118113M. Smyrnov2.2051630LSep 25 · 01:45M. Smyrnov2.007790O. Hura1.731111113LSep 24 · 23:45O. Mitla1.8311116113M. Smyrnov1.83991191LAug 30 · 06:05A. Kotyk1.401111143M. Smyrnov2.7516120
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