TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Berezynskyi vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151816113––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Berezynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Berezynskyi above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 64 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Serhii Berezynskyi at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Berezynskyi 11–9 Mykyta Smyrnov Mykyta Smyrnov has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:00What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Berezynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Berezynskyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berezynskyi 1614 vs Smyrnov 1500
Berezynskyi
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berezynskyi 40% vs Smyrnov 20%
Berezynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berezynskyi 60% vs Smyrnov 30%
Berezynskyi
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Berezynskyi -3 · Smyrnov -2
Berezynskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Berezynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerezynskyi 1.61 / Smyrnov 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Berezynskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13186661
Berezynskyi1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 62 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Smyrnov2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 94 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerezynskyi6wins
AwaySmyrnov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBerezynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerezynskyi100%4 of 4
AwaySmyrnov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berezynskyi4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S2Berezynskyi5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Berezynskyi7Smyrnov3n = 10Berezynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Berezynskyi3Smyrnov1n = 4Berezynskyi took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerezynskyiSmyrnovB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.529.8+4.7per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerezynskyiSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 353 vs 406 / 83749.6%48.5%175 / 353 vs 406 / 837Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerezynskyiBerezynskyi 1.61/Smyrnov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Berezynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Berezynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 23:45S. Berezynskyi4361115113M. Smyrnov371181351
LSep 5 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi2468100M. Smyrnov341111123
LSep 5 · 24:30S. Berezynskyi2587100M. Smyrnov341111123
WAug 19 · 02:15S. Berezynskyi331111113M. Smyrnov81160
WAug 8 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi361411113M. Smyrnov2212640
LJul 29 · 22:15S. Berezynskyi41510111142M. Smyrnov42111271113
WJul 15 · 02:15S. Berezynskyi331111113M. Smyrnov143650
WJul 13 · 20:45S. Berezynskyi4111811113M. Smyrnov26711621
WJun 24 · 23:15S. Berezynskyi45711124113M. Smyrnov46118101162
LJun 13 · 15:05S. Berezynskyi2471160M. Smyrnov351113113
S. Berezynskyi10
LSep 25 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.5011115123S. Berezynskyi1.503711101LSep 24 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.6312911133S. Berezynskyi1.4410116111LSep 24 · 22:15S. Berezynskyi1.6711139822O. Hura2.106111111113WSep 24 · 21:15O. Mitla2.2531111162S. Berezynskyi1.57118116113WSep 24 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.6111128992S. Berezynskyi2.209101111113WSep 24 · 01:45S. Berezynskyi1.73511119113O. Napirko2.0011971182WSep 23 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.001181351S. Berezynskyi1.7361115113WSep 23 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.6391241152S. Berezynskyi1.441110118113WSep 23 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.5051261372S. Berezynskyi1.5011101111113LSep 17 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi2.251110114132N. Kovalchuk1.57412811153
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 25 · 01:45M. Smyrnov2.007790O. Hura1.731111113LSep 24 · 23:45O. Mitla1.8311116113M. Smyrnov1.83991191WSep 24 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10991361M. Smyrnov1.67111111113LSep 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.2511411113M. Smyrnov1.57911881LSep 24 · 02:45M. Smyrnov2.104930O. Napirko1.671111113WSep 24 · 24:45A. Shypilov2.20611111152M. Smyrnov1.61113135113LSep 23 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.001181351S. Berezynskyi1.7361115113LSep 23 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.381114113M. Smyrnov1.5391220LSep 23 · 21:15M. Smyrnov2.251191191N. Kovalchuk1.5771113113WSep 21 · 04:25A. Chepurnyi1.4431111772M. Smyrnov2.63119511113
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