TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Berezynskyi vs Oleh Napirko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Serhii Berezynskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511119117911118
Oleh Napirko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Berezynskyi to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Berezynskyi above · Oleh Napirko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Berezynskyi at 54.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Berezynskyi 46–40 Oleh Napirko Oleh Napirko has won 40 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Berezynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-40 in 86
Berezynskyi
Correct
gap of 6 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berezynskyi 1631 vs Napirko 1613
Berezynskyi
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berezynskyi 60% vs Napirko 80%
Napirko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berezynskyi 60% vs Napirko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berezynskyi +3 · Napirko +2
Berezynskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Berezynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Napirko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerezynskyi 1.73 / Napirko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Berezynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13180428
Berezynskyi1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it75% 42 of 56
Napirko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 54 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerezynskyi6wins
AwayNapirko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBerezynskyi leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerezynskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayNapirko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berezynskyi6Napirko4n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Berezynskyi5Napirko5n = 10split evenly
S3Berezynskyi6Napirko4n = 10Berezynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Berezynskyi3Napirko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerezynskyiNapirkoB − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.432.6+1.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerezynskyiNapirkoBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 347 vs 423 / 84649.6%50%172 / 347 vs 423 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerezynskyiBerezynskyi 1.73/Napirko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Berezynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Berezynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 20:15S. Berezynskyi4041114113O. Napirko351161261
LAug 20 · 24:45S. Berezynskyi31115871O. Napirko3961111113
WJul 14 · 20:45S. Berezynskyi43115511113O. Napirko3981111722
LJul 14 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi33711781O. Napirko4211911113
WJul 11 · 13:35S. Berezynskyi4211911113O. Napirko32311991
LJul 2 · 24:45S. Berezynskyi30781141O. Napirko4111118113
WJun 21 · 05:35S. Berezynskyi331111113O. Napirko132830
WJun 20 · 15:35S. Berezynskyi351113113O. Napirko2991190
LMay 23 · 24:00S. Berezynskyi237880O. Napirko331111113
WMay 16 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi341112113O. Napirko2351080
S. Berezynskyi10
WSep 23 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.001181351S. Berezynskyi1.7361115113WSep 23 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.6391241152S. Berezynskyi1.441110118113WSep 23 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.5051261372S. Berezynskyi1.5011101111113LSep 17 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi2.251110114132N. Kovalchuk1.57412811153LSep 17 · 01:15O. Mitla2.5011116133S. Berezynskyi1.509911111WSep 16 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.631148121S. Berezynskyi1.4471111143WSep 16 · 22:15S. Berezynskyi1.67121310113R. Lazebnyi2.1010111271LSep 16 · 21:15O. Hura2.1011911113S. Berezynskyi1.67811861LSep 5 · 18:05S. Berezynskyi1.6710880O. Hura2.101211113WSep 5 · 16:35S. Berezynskyi1.5391111113Y. Shmyndra2.38116841
O. Napirko10
WSep 24 · 02:45M. Smyrnov2.104930O. Napirko1.671111113WSep 24 · 24:15V. Vlasenko2.1071111101O. Napirko1.6711713123WSep 23 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.53115571O. Napirko2.3881111113LSep 23 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.0071211113O. Napirko1.731110491WSep 20 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.10491441O. Napirko1.67111112113WSep 20 · 10:05O. Napirko2.1013911113R. Lazebnyi1.671111721WSep 20 · 08:05O. Mitla3.25136371O. Napirko1.33111111113LSep 20 · 06:05N. Kovalchuk1.5771111113O. Napirko2.25111771LSep 20 · 05:05A. Kotyk1.531211113O. Napirko2.3810560LSep 19 · 19:05O. Napirko2.2591191392N. Kovalchuk1.571151111113
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