TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Vlasenko vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71115131195111715
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Vlasenko above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 17-15
Point 114 set 5, 17-15 — our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 60.1%
114 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Vlasenko 29–59 Mykyta Smyrnov Valerii Vlasenko has won 29 of their 88 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-59 in 88
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 30 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vlasenko 1538 vs Smyrnov 1490
Vlasenko
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vlasenko 60% vs Smyrnov 20%
Vlasenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vlasenko 50% vs Smyrnov 20%
Vlasenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vlasenko +2 · Smyrnov -3
Smyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Smyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVlasenko 2.20 / Smyrnov 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Smyrnov)-1.0pp
Setka Cup · #13190487
Vlasenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 124 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 82
Smyrnov1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 110 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it91% 52 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it76% 79 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVlasenko5wins
AwaySmyrnov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVlasenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySmyrnov62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vlasenko2Smyrnov8n = 10Smyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Vlasenko5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Vlasenko5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S4Vlasenko4Smyrnov3n = 7Vlasenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovV − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.037.5−3.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVlasenkoSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 926 vs 406 / 83843.8%48.5%406 / 926 vs 406 / 838Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovVlasenko 2.20/Smyrnov 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vlasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko3711411113M. Smyrnov36911881
WSep 23 · 22:45V. Vlasenko361114113M. Smyrnov2391220
WSep 9 · 22:45V. Vlasenko46912311113M. Smyrnov48111011972
LSep 8 · 20:45V. Vlasenko25511631M. Smyrnov4011711113
WSep 5 · 17:35V. Vlasenko4581111153M. Smyrnov331154131
WSep 4 · 23:00V. Vlasenko53914712113M. Smyrnov531112111092
LSep 2 · 22:45V. Vlasenko28731171M. Smyrnov4111118113
LAug 30 · 05:05V. Vlasenko195680M. Smyrnov331111113
LAug 28 · 21:30V. Vlasenko32571191M. Smyrnov3511112113
LAug 25 · 20:45V. Vlasenko195950M. Smyrnov331111113
V. Vlasenko10
WSep 25 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.201261191V. Vlasenko1.6114119113WSep 25 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.5011115123S. Berezynskyi1.503711101LSep 25 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.258813151O. Hura1.57111111173LSep 24 · 22:45V. Vlasenko1.806440O. Mitla1.911111113WSep 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.2511411113M. Smyrnov1.57911881LSep 24 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.201111113V. Vlasenko1.616590WSep 24 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.25611911113N. Kovalchuk1.5711511692LSep 24 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.1071111101O. Napirko1.6711713123WSep 23 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.381114113M. Smyrnov1.5391220LSep 23 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.5051261372S. Berezynskyi1.5011101111113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 25 · 21:30O. Napirko1.611111113M. Smyrnov2.209950LSep 25 · 03:15S. Berezynskyi1.611118113M. Smyrnov2.2051630LSep 25 · 01:45M. Smyrnov2.007790O. Hura1.731111113LSep 24 · 23:45O. Mitla1.8311116113M. Smyrnov1.83991191WSep 24 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10991361M. Smyrnov1.67111111113LSep 24 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.2511411113M. Smyrnov1.57911881LSep 24 · 02:45M. Smyrnov2.104930O. Napirko1.671111113WSep 24 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.20611111152M. Smyrnov1.61113135113LSep 23 · 23:45M. Smyrnov2.001181351S. Berezynskyi1.7361115113LSep 23 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.381114113M. Smyrnov1.5391220
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