TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Nazar Kovalchuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115611911911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 69.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 26–18 Nazar Kovalchuk Nazar Kovalchuk has won 18 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-18 in 44
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 8 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1837 vs Kovalchuk 1700
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 100% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 80% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Pesternikov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +6 · Kovalchuk +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.40 / Kovalchuk 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13203207
Pesternikov1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 26)
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 222 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it95% 124 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it84% 177 of 212
Kovalchuk2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 26)
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 46 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov6wins
AwayKovalchuk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovalchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Pesternikov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Pesternikov4Kovalchuk3n = 7Pesternikov took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovKovalchukP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.735.8+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1095 vs 400 / 76753.9%52.2%590 / 1095 vs 400 / 767Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.40/Kovalchuk 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov35116991N. Kovalchuk3851111113
LSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov187380N. Kovalchuk331111113
LAug 22 · 05:05D. Pesternikov47118711102N. Kovalchuk45411117123
WAug 21 · 16:35D. Pesternikov4011711113N. Kovalchuk29311961
WJul 2 · 22:00D. Pesternikov44111111113N. Kovalchuk30133771
WJun 13 · 07:05D. Pesternikov4912914143N. Kovalchuk45101112121
WJun 4 · 20:00D. Pesternikov48127117113N. Kovalchuk48101181182
WJun 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov351111133N. Kovalchuk2577110
WJun 1 · 21:00D. Pesternikov381111163N. Kovalchuk2868140
LMay 17 · 21:15D. Pesternikov33681181N. Kovalchuk3711114113
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 27 · 22:30D. Neborak4.3311118123D. Pesternikov1.207911101WSep 26 · 10:35D. Pesternikov1.801111113I. Kozachuk1.918690WSep 26 · 09:05D. Pesternikov1.441711113S. Rak2.6315710WSep 26 · 07:35D. Pesternikov1.4011711113D. Shcherbak2.75811761WSep 26 · 06:05D. Pesternikov1.5341111113I. Romaniak2.38115671WSep 26 · 04:35D. Pesternikov1.2511911113R. Haiseniuk3.75711761WSep 25 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.361111113D. Shcherbak3.007960LSep 25 · 16:35D. Neborak4.331111127113D. Pesternikov1.2085141182LSep 25 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.20511761R. Haiseniuk4.3311611113WSep 25 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.105840D. Pesternikov1.671111113
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113WSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.3681111113O. Mitla3.00115641WSep 26 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.571111173V. Boyko2.2569150WSep 26 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.801211910113A. Shypilov1.91106111282WSep 26 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.61817911113O. Hura2.20111511642LSep 26 · 12:05N. Kovalchuk1.6111116882R. Lazebnyi2.20951111113LSep 24 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.6111128992S. Berezynskyi2.209101111113LSep 24 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.25611911113N. Kovalchuk1.5711511692WSep 23 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.004813101N. Kovalchuk1.73111111123LSep 23 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.53115571O. Napirko2.3881111113
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