TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Neborak vs Denys Pesternikov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171198111210––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 80.3% is still 80.3%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
80.3%
80.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 80.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 6–13 Denys Pesternikov Dmytro Neborak has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1727 vs Pesternikov 1837
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 80% vs Pesternikov 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 70% vs Pesternikov 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Pesternikov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 4.33 / Pesternikov 1.20
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13203414
Neborak4.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 118 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back9% 11 of 117
Pesternikov1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 222 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it95% 124 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it84% 177 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak3wins
AwayPesternikov7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak60%3 of 5
AwayPesternikov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak5Pesternikov5n = 10split evenly
S2Neborak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S3Neborak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S4Neborak2Pesternikov5n = 7Pesternikov took 5 of 7
S5Neborak1Pesternikov2n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakPesternikovN − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.9−6.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime309 / 839 vs 590 / 109536.8%53.9%309 / 839 vs 590 / 1095Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovNeborak 4.33/Pesternikov 1.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
80.3%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 22 · 09:05D. Neborak197930D. Pesternikov331111113
WSep 21 · 18:35D. Neborak4211911113D. Pesternikov34811781
LJul 21 · 08:55D. Neborak197840D. Pesternikov331111113
WJul 20 · 18:25D. Neborak44116511113D. Pesternikov4251111782
LJul 19 · 20:30D. Neborak2495100D. Pesternikov341111123
LJul 14 · 05:35D. Neborak4411711782D. Pesternikov48711811113
LJul 13 · 17:05D. Neborak32117951D. Pesternikov4291111113
LJul 12 · 23:30D. Neborak29711471D. Pesternikov4211911113
LJul 6 · 14:55D. Neborak4891211882D. Pesternikov511110811113
D. Neborak10
LSep 27 · 20:30D. Neborak1.67951181O. Napirko2.1011115113WSep 25 · 18:05D. Neborak3.50821411113I. Kozachuk1.28111112692WSep 25 · 16:35D. Neborak4.331111127113D. Pesternikov1.2085141182WSep 25 · 15:05D. Neborak2.00121168113I. Romaniak1.73109111152WSep 25 · 13:35D. Neborak1.671111133R. Haiseniuk2.1035110WSep 25 · 12:05D. Neborak1.9141112113D. Shcherbak1.801151041LSep 25 · 02:30D. Neborak1.5068130R. Haiseniuk2.501111153LSep 25 · 00:30S. Rak1.4011514123D. Neborak2.7581112101WSep 24 · 23:30D. Neborak2.251111113D. Shcherbak1.579580WSep 24 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.25116561D. Neborak3.7531111113
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 27 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.1411118113O. Napirko5.00711141LSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.40116991N. Kovalchuk2.7551111113WSep 26 · 10:35D. Pesternikov1.801111113I. Kozachuk1.918690WSep 26 · 09:05D. Pesternikov1.441711113S. Rak2.6315710WSep 26 · 07:35D. Pesternikov1.4011711113D. Shcherbak2.75811761WSep 26 · 06:05D. Pesternikov1.5341111113I. Romaniak2.38115671WSep 26 · 04:35D. Pesternikov1.2511911113R. Haiseniuk3.75711761WSep 25 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.361111113D. Shcherbak3.007960LSep 25 · 16:35D. Neborak4.331111127113D. Pesternikov1.2085141182LSep 25 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.20511761R. Haiseniuk4.3311611113
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