TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Ivan Romaniak 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411115116117––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Ivan Romaniak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 66 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 64.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 44–35 Ivan Romaniak Ivan Romaniak has won 35 of their 79 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-35 in 79
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 9 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1820 vs Romaniak 1663
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 60% vs Romaniak 20%
Pesternikov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 50% vs Romaniak 10%
Pesternikov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +2 · Romaniak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Romaniak form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.53 / Romaniak 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13196384
Pesternikov1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 218 of 324
Up 2–0, closes it95% 123 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it83% 174 of 209
Romaniak2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 123 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back27% 48 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov5wins
AwayRomaniak5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov57.1%4 of 7
AwayRomaniak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Romaniak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov5Romaniak5n = 10split evenly
S3Pesternikov6Romaniak4n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S4Pesternikov2Romaniak3n = 5Romaniak took 3 of 5
S5Pesternikov1Romaniak3n = 4Romaniak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovRomaniakP − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.1+2.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovRomaniakBasisWin rate · lifetime592 / 1101 vs 252 / 56153.8%44.9%592 / 1101 vs 252 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.53/Romaniak 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 06:05D. Pesternikov3741111113I. Romaniak29115671
WSep 25 · 13:05D. Pesternikov46119114113I. Romaniak4151171172
LSep 22 · 11:05D. Pesternikov4011911632I. Romaniak49811811113
WSep 21 · 15:35D. Pesternikov331111113I. Romaniak258890
LSep 15 · 09:05D. Pesternikov2161140I. Romaniak351113113
LSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov4711791192I. Romaniak44711114113
LSep 8 · 08:55D. Pesternikov49111110982I. Romaniak43721211113
WSep 7 · 17:55D. Pesternikov341112113I. Romaniak2271050
WSep 6 · 23:45D. Pesternikov361411113I. Romaniak2812790
LSep 1 · 05:25D. Pesternikov28108100I. Romaniak351211123
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 26 · 04:35D. Pesternikov1.2511911113R. Haiseniuk3.75711761WSep 25 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.361111113D. Shcherbak3.007960LSep 25 · 16:35D. Neborak4.331111127113D. Pesternikov1.2085141182LSep 25 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.20511761R. Haiseniuk4.3311611113WSep 25 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.105840D. Pesternikov1.671111113WSep 25 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.53119114113I. Romaniak2.3851171172LSep 22 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.5311911632I. Romaniak2.38811811113WSep 22 · 09:05D. Neborak3.757930D. Pesternikov1.251111113LSep 22 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.3613691382D. Shcherbak3.0011111111113LSep 22 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.1011101011113D. Pesternikov1.6751212492
I. Romaniak10
LSep 26 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.5312811113I. Romaniak2.381011961WSep 25 · 19:05I. Romaniak1.831111113R. Haiseniuk1.835940LSep 25 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.571211116113I. Romaniak2.25101381132LSep 25 · 15:05D. Neborak2.00121168113I. Romaniak1.73109111152LSep 25 · 14:05I. Romaniak2.00711961D. Shcherbak1.7311611113LSep 25 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.53119114113I. Romaniak2.3851171172LSep 25 · 03:00I. Romaniak2.005460D. Shcherbak1.731111113LSep 25 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.611111113I. Romaniak2.203740LSep 24 · 23:00S. Rak1.50681311113I. Romaniak2.50111111372WSep 22 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.5311911632I. Romaniak2.38811811113
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