TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Hura vs Nazar Kovalchuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1315911811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 67 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 60.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 13–17 Nazar Kovalchuk Orest Hura has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-17 in 30
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1550 vs Kovalchuk 1691
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 60% vs Kovalchuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 50% vs Kovalchuk 70%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura -1 · Kovalchuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 2.20 / Kovalchuk 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13213740
Hura2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 39 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back24% 13 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Kovalchuk1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 168 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it73% 110 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura2wins
AwayKovalchuk8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura50%2 of 4
AwayKovalchuk100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Hura4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Hura3Kovalchuk7n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Hura4Kovalchuk3n = 7Hura took 4 of 7
S5Hura0Kovalchuk4n = 4Kovalchuk took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraKovalchukH − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.142.4−4.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 783 vs 403 / 77352.5%52.1%411 / 783 vs 403 / 773Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukHura 2.20/Kovalchuk 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 13:35O. Hura47111511642N. Kovalchuk56817911113
WSep 21 · 10:08O. Hura48111511113N. Kovalchuk38817761
LSep 21 · 05:55O. Hura227870N. Kovalchuk331111113
LSep 16 · 23:45O. Hura45114111182N. Kovalchuk51711913113
LSep 8 · 09:55O. Hura4851771182N. Kovalchuk521115114113
LAug 25 · 23:15O. Hura238960N. Kovalchuk331111113
WAug 6 · 20:15O. Hura4311129113N. Kovalchuk315101151
LAug 1 · 15:35O. Hura47101171182N. Kovalchuk50127119113
LJul 31 · 22:30O. Hura3710143101N. Kovalchuk47121211123
LJul 26 · 08:05O. Hura217950N. Kovalchuk331111113
O. Hura10
WSep 30 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.101091281O. Hura1.67121110113LSep 29 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.20101111113O. Hura1.61127981WSep 29 · 21:15O. Hura1.8051112113M. Smyrnov1.911191061LSep 27 · 11:05V. Vlasenko2.0013101110113O. Hura1.73111291292WSep 27 · 10:05M. Smyrnov1.911161471O. Hura1.80131112113WSep 27 · 08:35V. Boyko2.50107111192O. Hura1.50121169113WSep 27 · 06:35A. Shypilov2.25118791O. Hura1.5791111113LSep 27 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.61118611113O. Hura2.2041111992LSep 26 · 19:05A. Shypilov2.2511611163O. Hura1.578119141WSep 26 · 17:35O. Hura1.8011117183R. Lazebnyi1.919611161
N. Kovalchuk10
LSep 29 · 21:45A. Shypilov1.91115129113N. Kovalchuk1.80611101192WSep 29 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.251111111072N. Kovalchuk1.57133712113WSep 28 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk1.57411711113O. Napirko2.2511811882WSep 28 · 01:00D. Neborak1.83951181N. Kovalchuk1.8311116113LSep 27 · 23:00S. Rak1.33312811113N. Kovalchuk3.25111011852LSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113WSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.40116991N. Kovalchuk2.7551111113WSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.3681111113O. Mitla3.00115641WSep 26 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.571111173V. Boyko2.2569150WSep 26 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.801211910113A. Shypilov1.91106111282
Upcoming Matches
O. Hura
N. Kovalchuk
Sep 30 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.36O. Mitla3.00—Sep 30 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.53M. Smyrnov2.38—Sep 30 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk1.73A. Shypilov2.00—Sep 30 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.53M. Smyrnov2.38—Oct 1 · 00:15N. Kovalchuk1.61V. Vlasenko2.20—Oct 1 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57O. Hura2.25—Oct 1 · 02:45N. Kovalchuk1.36O. Mitla3.00—
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