TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Nazar Kovalchuk vs Oleksii Mitla 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012114611111611
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:36 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingNazar Kovalchuk above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 83 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 73.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Nazar Kovalchuk 36–14 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 14 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-14 in 50
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 22 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1700 vs Mitla 1515
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 185 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Mitla 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 70% vs Mitla 30%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Mitla +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.36 / Mitla 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13213916
Kovalchuk1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 168 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it73% 110 of 150
Mitla3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 125 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayMitla3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%6 of 6
AwayMitla75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Mitla4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk5Mitla1n = 6Kovalchuk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMitlaK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.331.0+5.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 774 vs 356 / 82052.2%43.4%404 / 774 vs 356 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.36/Mitla 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.2%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk4181111113O. Mitla26115641
WSep 21 · 04:25N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Mitla228770
WSep 20 · 09:05N. Kovalchuk481151011113O. Mitla3931112762
LSep 18 · 00:15N. Kovalchuk31511871O. Mitla4111811113
LSep 16 · 20:45N. Kovalchuk32141170O. Mitla401613113
WSep 16 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk331111113O. Mitla236980
WSep 6 · 05:05N. Kovalchuk3711411113O. Mitla26611451
WAug 27 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk4011711113O. Mitla24411631
WAug 24 · 21:15N. Kovalchuk4111117123O. Mitla347611101
LAug 20 · 01:15N. Kovalchuk2781180O. Mitla351113113
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 29 · 23:45O. Hura2.2013980N. Kovalchuk1.611511113LSep 29 · 21:45A. Shypilov1.91115129113N. Kovalchuk1.80611101192WSep 29 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.251111111072N. Kovalchuk1.57133712113WSep 28 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk1.57411711113O. Napirko2.2511811882WSep 28 · 01:00D. Neborak1.83951181N. Kovalchuk1.8311116113LSep 27 · 23:00S. Rak1.33312811113N. Kovalchuk3.25111011852LSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113WSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.40116991N. Kovalchuk2.7551111113WSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.3681111113O. Mitla3.00115641WSep 26 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.571111173V. Boyko2.2569150
O. Mitla10
WSep 30 · 02:45O. Hura1.7361111121O. Mitla2.0011413143WSep 30 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.7313811872O. Mitla2.001111811113WSep 29 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.831181031O. Mitla1.8391112113LSep 29 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.838121111113O. Mitla1.8311144872LSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.3681111113O. Mitla3.00115641WSep 26 · 17:05O. Mitla1.7311951183A. Shypilov2.0091111872LSep 26 · 14:35O. Mitla2.0081311482V. Boyko1.731111711103LSep 26 · 12:35O. Mitla2.10811381O. Hura1.6711611113LSep 26 · 02:30O. Mitla2.7597100R. Lazebnyi1.401111123LSep 26 · 00:30O. Napirko1.334111110113O. Mitla3.2511931272
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