TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Hura vs Oleksii Mitla 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61111411131214––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:43 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeOrest Hura to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOrest Hura above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 82 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Orest Hura at 54.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Orest Hura 33–25 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 25 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hura
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-25 in 58
Hura
Wrong
gap of 8 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hura 1553 vs Mitla 1531
Hura
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hura 40% vs Mitla 60%
Mitla
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hura 50% vs Mitla 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hura +1 · Mitla +3
Mitla
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hura) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hura form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHura 1.73 / Mitla 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hura)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13213619
Hura1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 88 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it72% 62 of 86
Mitla2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 125 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHura6wins
AwayMitla4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHura leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHura66.7%4 of 6
AwayMitla50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hura6Mitla4n = 10Hura took 6 of 10
S2Hura5Mitla5n = 10split evenly
S3Hura8Mitla2n = 10Hura took 8 of 10
S4Hura7Mitla2n = 9Hura took 7 of 9
S5Hura0Mitla4n = 4Mitla took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHuraMitlaH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.739.8+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHuraMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 785 vs 357 / 82152.5%43.5%412 / 785 vs 357 / 821Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HuraHura 1.73/Mitla 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Hura · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mitla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 12:35O. Hura3911611113O. Mitla30811381
LSep 25 · 02:45O. Hura561112811142O. Mitla54814115163
WSep 21 · 06:55O. Hura4691412113O. Mitla4111121081
LSep 16 · 22:45O. Hura4611913942O. Mitla484111111113
WSep 12 · 01:30O. Hura3911611113O. Mitla30411781
LSep 10 · 01:45O. Hura4999111192O. Mitla47111195113
WSep 4 · 20:30O. Hura45101211123O. Mitla3812106101
WSep 2 · 23:15O. Hura331111113O. Mitla207580
WSep 2 · 02:15O. Hura4415144113O. Mitla4313121171
LAug 30 · 11:05O. Hura4061111752O. Mitla47118611113
O. Hura10
WSep 30 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.101091281O. Hura1.67121110113LSep 29 · 23:45O. Hura2.2013980N. Kovalchuk1.611511113LSep 29 · 22:45V. Vlasenko2.20101111113O. Hura1.61127981WSep 29 · 21:15O. Hura1.8051112113M. Smyrnov1.911191061LSep 27 · 11:05V. Vlasenko2.0013101110113O. Hura1.73111291292WSep 27 · 10:05M. Smyrnov1.911161471O. Hura1.80131112113WSep 27 · 08:35V. Boyko2.50107111192O. Hura1.50121169113WSep 27 · 06:35A. Shypilov2.25118791O. Hura1.5791111113LSep 27 · 04:35A. Kotyk1.61118611113O. Hura2.2041111992LSep 26 · 19:05A. Shypilov2.2511611163O. Hura1.578119141
O. Mitla10
WSep 30 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.36101161162O. Mitla3.00124111113WSep 30 · 00:15V. Vlasenko1.7313811872O. Mitla2.001111811113WSep 29 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.831181031O. Mitla1.8391112113LSep 29 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.838121111113O. Mitla1.8311144872LSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.3681111113O. Mitla3.00115641WSep 26 · 17:05O. Mitla1.7311951183A. Shypilov2.0091111872LSep 26 · 14:35O. Mitla2.0081311482V. Boyko1.731111711103LSep 26 · 12:35O. Mitla2.10811381O. Hura1.6711611113LSep 26 · 02:30O. Mitla2.7597100R. Lazebnyi1.401111123LSep 26 · 00:30O. Napirko1.334111110113O. Mitla3.2511931272
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