TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Napirko vs Oleksii Mitla 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111191131012117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:14 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Napirko to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Oleksii Mitla below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleh Napirko at 73.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 48–15 Oleksii Mitla Oleksii Mitla has won 15 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:14What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Napirko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-15 in 63
Napirko
Correct
gap of 33 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1638 vs Mitla 1539
Napirko
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 80% vs Mitla 60%
Napirko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 80% vs Mitla 60%
Napirko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko +4 · Mitla -1
Napirko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Napirko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitla form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 1.33 / Mitla 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Napirko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13190645
Napirko1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 76 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it72% 62 of 86
Mitla3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 125 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back11% 13 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNapirko8wins
AwayMitla2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNapirko leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirko100%6 of 6
AwayMitla50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko6Mitla4n = 10Napirko took 6 of 10
S2Napirko8Mitla2n = 10Napirko took 8 of 10
S3Napirko8Mitla1n = 9Napirko took 8 of 9
S4Napirko2Mitla3n = 5Mitla took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNapirkoMitlaN − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.831.9+7.9per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoMitlaBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 851 vs 353 / 81150.2%43.5%427 / 851 vs 353 / 811Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NapirkoNapirko 1.33/Mitla 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Napirko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Napirko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 08:05O. Napirko44111111113O. Mitla29136371
WSep 17 · 20:45O. Napirko361111143O. Mitla2567120
LSep 16 · 00:15O. Napirko389101181O. Mitla4111127113
WSep 13 · 08:35O. Napirko51911119113O. Mitla4011791122
WSep 9 · 02:45O. Napirko331111113O. Mitla207940
WSep 6 · 11:35O. Napirko4211119113O. Mitla27571141
LAug 26 · 21:45O. Napirko398711131O. Mitla4511118153
WAug 25 · 00:45O. Napirko351112123O. Mitla26610100
WAug 22 · 14:35O. Napirko401115143O. Mitla34913120
O. Napirko10
WSep 25 · 23:00O. Napirko1.67661111113V. Boyko2.1011117972WSep 25 · 21:30O. Napirko1.611111113M. Smyrnov2.209950WSep 25 · 20:00O. Napirko2.00711911113R. Lazebnyi1.7311511672WSep 24 · 02:45M. Smyrnov2.104930O. Napirko1.671111113LSep 24 · 01:45S. Berezynskyi1.73511119113O. Napirko2.0011971182WSep 24 · 00:15V. Vlasenko2.1071111101O. Napirko1.6711713123WSep 23 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.53115571O. Napirko2.3881111113LSep 23 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.0071211113O. Napirko1.731110491WSep 20 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.10491441O. Napirko1.67111112113WSep 20 · 10:05O. Napirko2.1013911113R. Lazebnyi1.671111721
O. Mitla10
LSep 25 · 23:30O. Mitla1.83491161M. Smyrnov1.8311115113WSep 25 · 22:30V. Vlasenko1.7341191162O. Mitla2.00117116113WSep 25 · 21:00O. Mitla2.00117116113V. Boyko1.7331181182WSep 25 · 02:45O. Mitla2.00814115163O. Hura1.731112811142LSep 25 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.001181211133O. Mitla1.731311104112WSep 24 · 23:45O. Mitla1.8311116113M. Smyrnov1.83991191WSep 24 · 22:45V. Vlasenko1.806440O. Mitla1.911111113LSep 24 · 21:15O. Mitla2.2531111162S. Berezynskyi1.57118116113LSep 21 · 09:38O. Mitla1.83513591A. Shypilov1.83111111113WSep 21 · 08:25A. Shypilov2.10119152112O. Mitla1.676111311133
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