TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Shcherbak vs Ivan Kozachuk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012311––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 56 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Denys Shcherbak at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 47–47 Ivan Kozachuk Dead even across their 94 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
47-47 in 94
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1802 vs Kozachuk 1778
Shcherbak
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 80% vs Kozachuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 90% vs Kozachuk 60%
Shcherbak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +4 · Kozachuk -1
Shcherbak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 1.83 / Kozachuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shcherbak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13212448
Shcherbak1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Kozachuk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak4wins
AwayKozachuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak60%3 of 5
AwayKozachuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Shcherbak7Kozachuk3n = 10Shcherbak took 7 of 10
S3Shcherbak3Kozachuk7n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S4Shcherbak2Kozachuk4n = 6Kozachuk took 4 of 6
S5Shcherbak1Kozachuk2n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakKozachukS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.336.8−1.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 694 vs 558 / 111052%50.3%361 / 694 vs 558 / 1110Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakShcherbak 1.83/Kozachuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 16:05D. Shcherbak47111186113I. Kozachuk4176111162
LSep 26 · 09:35D. Shcherbak327111041I. Kozachuk3811412113
WSep 25 · 16:05D. Shcherbak4281211113I. Kozachuk361110871
LSep 24 · 20:30D. Shcherbak48111112952I. Kozachuk53891411113
WSep 22 · 05:05D. Shcherbak331111113I. Kozachuk203890
WSep 21 · 18:05D. Shcherbak331111113I. Kozachuk258890
LSep 19 · 08:35D. Shcherbak28115391I. Kozachuk3851111113
LSep 18 · 12:35D. Shcherbak2110380I. Kozachuk341211113
LSep 18 · 01:00D. Shcherbak2284100I. Kozachuk341111123
LSep 15 · 08:35D. Shcherbak47511111192I. Kozachuk49115139113
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 29 · 09:05D. Shcherbak1.2216116113O. Napirko4.001451171WSep 29 · 07:35D. Shcherbak1.4411114113R. Lazebnyi2.63861191WSep 29 · 06:05D. Shcherbak1.831111113D. Neborak1.837850WSep 29 · 04:35D. Shcherbak1.571111123I. Romaniak2.2559100LSep 28 · 18:35S. Rak1.6111711113D. Shcherbak2.20311371WSep 28 · 17:35D. Neborak1.8011614692D. Shcherbak1.914111211113WSep 28 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8376111162D. Shcherbak1.83111186113WSep 28 · 14:05O. Napirko3.008660D. Shcherbak1.361111113WSep 28 · 12:05I. Romaniak2.208730D. Shcherbak1.611111113WSep 26 · 11:35D. Shcherbak1.671111113I. Romaniak2.106980
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 29 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.4051111542R. Lazebnyi2.75119811113WSep 29 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.501111113I. Romaniak2.506960WSep 29 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.10111210113O. Napirko6.507101241WSep 29 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.36511911113D. Neborak3.0011811982WSep 28 · 18:05I. Romaniak2.3811281272I. Kozachuk1.539111110113WSep 28 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.1181111113O. Napirko6.00119641LSep 28 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8376111162D. Shcherbak1.83111186113LSep 28 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.3811612682S. Rak1.539111011113WSep 28 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.33113911113D. Neborak3.2551111682LSep 26 · 10:35D. Pesternikov1.801111113I. Kozachuk1.918690
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