TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Kozachuk vs Ruslan Lazebnyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119118511411
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:32 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 86 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 69.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 2–1 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kozachuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1795 vs Lazebnyi 1605
Kozachuk
Wrong
both rated, 190 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 100% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Kozachuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 70% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Kozachuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +5 · Lazebnyi -1
Kozachuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Kozachuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.40 / Lazebnyi 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kozachuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13212439
Kozachuk1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 116 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it94% 61 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 87 of 106
Lazebnyi2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 21 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKozachuk2wins
AwayLazebnyi1wins
Kozachuk leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk2Lazebnyi1n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
S2Kozachuk1Lazebnyi2n = 3Lazebnyi took 2 of 3
S3Kozachuk3Lazebnyi0n = 3Kozachuk took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKozachukLazebnyiK − LBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.036.3+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime558 / 1109 vs 81 / 16550.3%49.1%558 / 1109 vs 81 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.40/Lazebnyi 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lazebnyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 13 · 20:30I. Kozachuk371114123R. Lazebnyi28612100
WSep 5 · 07:05I. Kozachuk45111111123R. Lazebnyi378136101
LSep 4 · 00:00I. Kozachuk357611111R. Lazebnyi4411119133
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 29 · 10:35D. Shcherbak1.8391030I. Kozachuk1.831112113WSep 29 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.501111113I. Romaniak2.506960WSep 29 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.10111210113O. Napirko6.507101241WSep 29 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.36511911113D. Neborak3.0011811982WSep 28 · 18:05I. Romaniak2.3811281272I. Kozachuk1.539111110113WSep 28 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.1181111113O. Napirko6.00119641LSep 28 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8376111162D. Shcherbak1.83111186113LSep 28 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.3811612682S. Rak1.539111011113WSep 28 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.33113911113D. Neborak3.2551111682LSep 26 · 10:35D. Pesternikov1.801111113I. Kozachuk1.918690
R. Lazebnyi10
WSep 29 · 11:35R. Lazebnyi2.251111133D. Neborak1.5777110LSep 29 · 07:35D. Shcherbak1.4411114113R. Lazebnyi2.63861191WSep 29 · 06:35R. Lazebnyi1.831291411113I. Romaniak1.83101116542LSep 29 · 05:35O. Napirko1.8311136113R. Lazebnyi1.838111181WSep 28 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4041211632R. Lazebnyi2.751110311113LSep 28 · 01:30O. Napirko1.9111116113R. Lazebnyi1.80941171LSep 28 · 00:00D. Neborak1.831112113R. Lazebnyi1.8381050WSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113LSep 27 · 20:00S. Rak1.3611311113R. Lazebnyi3.00911661WSep 26 · 18:35V. Boyko2.20611861R. Lazebnyi1.6111711113
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