TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykyta Smyrnov vs Nazar Kovalchuk 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117112116––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:07 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykyta Smyrnov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 48 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 64.8%
48 points played in total.
H2H Mykyta Smyrnov 20–45 Nazar Kovalchuk Mykyta Smyrnov has won 20 of their 65 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:0764.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-45 in 65
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 25 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyrnov 1512 vs Kovalchuk 1675
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 163 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyrnov 80% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Smyrnov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyrnov 40% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyrnov +4 · Kovalchuk +1
Smyrnov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyrnov 2.375 / Kovalchuk 1.533
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13219300
Smyrnov2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 95 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 81
Kovalchuk1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 170 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it73% 112 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyrnov3wins
AwayKovalchuk7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyrnov14.3%1 of 7
AwayKovalchuk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyrnov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Smyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Smyrnov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Smyrnov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Smyrnov3Kovalchuk6n = 9Kovalchuk took 6 of 9
S5Smyrnov2Kovalchuk4n = 6Kovalchuk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmyrnovKovalchukS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.045.8−2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmyrnovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 854 vs 405 / 77748.4%52.1%413 / 854 vs 405 / 777Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukSmyrnov 2.38/Kovalchuk 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 03:15M. Smyrnov55616814113N. Kovalchuk571114111292
LSep 23 · 21:15M. Smyrnov401191191N. Kovalchuk4271113113
LSep 11 · 13:35M. Smyrnov4011661162N. Kovalchuk46611117113
WAug 26 · 03:15M. Smyrnov331111113N. Kovalchuk247890
LAug 24 · 22:15M. Smyrnov48111168122N. Kovalchuk54991111143
LAug 18 · 03:15M. Smyrnov37119981N. Kovalchuk4291111113
LAug 9 · 10:05M. Smyrnov359101241N. Kovalchuk44111210113
LAug 7 · 01:45M. Smyrnov4111911282N. Kovalchuk47711711113
WAug 5 · 23:15M. Smyrnov50911811113N. Kovalchuk4611811972
LJul 26 · 10:05M. Smyrnov5111716892N. Kovalchuk569111411113
M. Smyrnov10
LSep 30 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.10111211113M. Smyrnov1.67614241WSep 30 · 21:15O. Mitla1.918340M. Smyrnov1.801111113WSep 30 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.38616814113N. Kovalchuk1.531114111292WSep 30 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.1075120M. Smyrnov1.671111143WSep 29 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2091090M. Smyrnov1.611112113LSep 29 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.831181031O. Mitla1.8391112113LSep 29 · 21:15O. Hura1.8051112113M. Smyrnov1.911191061LSep 27 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.001111113M. Smyrnov1.737770LSep 27 · 10:05M. Smyrnov1.911161471O. Hura1.80131112113LSep 27 · 08:05V. Vlasenko2.20511711113M. Smyrnov1.6111411742
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 30 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.0010890N. Kovalchuk1.731211113LSep 30 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.38616814113N. Kovalchuk1.531114111292LSep 30 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.36101161162O. Mitla3.00124111113WSep 29 · 23:45O. Hura2.2013980N. Kovalchuk1.611511113LSep 29 · 21:45A. Shypilov1.91115129113N. Kovalchuk1.80611101192WSep 29 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.251111111072N. Kovalchuk1.57133712113WSep 28 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk1.57411711113O. Napirko2.2511811882WSep 28 · 01:00D. Neborak1.83951181N. Kovalchuk1.8311116113LSep 27 · 23:00S. Rak1.33312811113N. Kovalchuk3.25111011852LSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smyrnov
N. Kovalchuk
Oct 1 · 00:15N. Kovalchuk1.61V. Vlasenko2.20—Oct 1 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.57O. Hura2.25—Oct 1 · 02:45N. Kovalchuk1.40O. Mitla2.75—Oct 1 · 20:00N. Kovalchuk3.00S. Rak1.36—Oct 1 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk2.00D. Shcherbak1.73—Oct 2 · 00:00N. Kovalchuk1.83I. Kozachuk1.83—Oct 2 · 01:30N. Kovalchuk3.40D. Zeniuk1.30—Oct 2 · 02:30N. Kovalchuk2.63D. Pesternikov1.44—
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