TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Shypilov vs Mykyta Smyrnov 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161214112114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:02 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMykyta Smyrnov to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Mykyta Smyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Mykyta Smyrnov at 56.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 49–63 Mykyta Smyrnov Anton Shypilov has won 49 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:0256.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
49-63 in 112
Smyrnov
Wrong
gap of 14 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1513 vs Smyrnov 1532
Smyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 20% vs Smyrnov 100%
Smyrnov
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 40% vs Smyrnov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +1 · Smyrnov +5
Smyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Smyrnov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smyrnov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 2.10 / Smyrnov 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Smyrnov)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219199
Shypilov2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 164 of 369
Down 0–1, comes back29% 59 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 111
Smyrnov1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 109 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it91% 52 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it75% 79 of 106
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov3wins
AwaySmyrnov7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSmyrnov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov75%3 of 4
AwaySmyrnov100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov4Smyrnov6n = 10Smyrnov took 6 of 10
S2Shypilov5Smyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Shypilov4Smyrnov5n = 9Smyrnov took 5 of 9
S4Shypilov3Smyrnov2n = 5Shypilov took 3 of 5
S5Shypilov0Smyrnov3n = 3Smyrnov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovSmyrnovShypilov − SmyrnovBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.737.8−3.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovSmyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 852 vs 414 / 85545.5%48.4%388 / 852 vs 414 / 855Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmyrnovShypilov 2.10/Smyrnov 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Smyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 29 · 23:15A. Shypilov2891090M. Smyrnov341112113
WSep 27 · 11:35A. Shypilov331111113M. Smyrnov217770
LSep 24 · 21:45A. Shypilov37991361M. Smyrnov44111111113
LSep 24 · 00:45A. Shypilov44611111152M. Smyrnov43113135113
WSep 12 · 18:35A. Shypilov341112113M. Smyrnov2271050
LSep 10 · 00:45A. Shypilov50811811122M. Smyrnov51118117143
LSep 8 · 21:45A. Shypilov133370M. Smyrnov331111113
LSep 2 · 23:45A. Shypilov3911451182M. Smyrnov51911119113
LSep 1 · 23:45A. Shypilov34981161M. Smyrnov4111118113
A. Shypilov10
WSep 30 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.00137119113O. Hura1.73111181152LSep 30 · 20:15A. Shypilov2.0010890N. Kovalchuk1.731211113LSep 30 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.102990V. Vlasenko1.671111113LSep 30 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.101091281O. Hura1.67121110113LSep 29 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2091090M. Smyrnov1.611112113WSep 29 · 21:45A. Shypilov1.91115129113N. Kovalchuk1.80611101192WSep 29 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.838121111113O. Mitla1.8311144872WSep 27 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.001111113M. Smyrnov1.737770LSep 27 · 09:35V. Boyko2.00111111133A. Shypilov1.739139111LSep 27 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.331111113A. Shypilov3.257680
M. Smyrnov10
WSep 30 · 22:15M. Smyrnov2.381111113N. Kovalchuk1.537260WSep 30 · 21:15O. Mitla1.918340M. Smyrnov1.801111113WSep 30 · 03:15M. Smyrnov2.38616814113N. Kovalchuk1.531114111292WSep 30 · 01:15V. Vlasenko2.1075120M. Smyrnov1.671111143WSep 29 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.2091090M. Smyrnov1.611112113LSep 29 · 22:15M. Smyrnov1.831181031O. Mitla1.8391112113LSep 29 · 21:15O. Hura1.8051112113M. Smyrnov1.911191061LSep 27 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.001111113M. Smyrnov1.737770LSep 27 · 10:05M. Smyrnov1.911161471O. Hura1.80131112113LSep 27 · 08:05V. Vlasenko2.20511711113M. Smyrnov1.6111411742
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