TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Kozachuk vs Yaroslav Kravets 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:50 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Yaroslav Kravets below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 50 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 54.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 27–21 Yaroslav Kravets Yaroslav Kravets has won 21 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5054.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-21 in 48
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 6 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1733 vs Kravets 1646
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 0% vs Kravets 40%
Kravets
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 20% vs Kravets 60%
Kravets
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk -5 · Kravets +1
Kozachuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kozachuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.727 / Kravets 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kozachuk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229337
Kozachuk1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 118 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it94% 62 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it83% 88 of 106
Kravets2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 59 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back22% 14 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk6wins
AwayKravets4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk80%4 of 5
AwayKravets60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk5Kravets5n = 10split evenly
S2Kozachuk5Kravets5n = 10split evenly
S3Kozachuk5Kravets5n = 10split evenly
S4Kozachuk4Kravets1n = 5Kozachuk took 4 of 5
S5Kozachuk2Kravets2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukKravetsKozachuk − KravetsBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.1+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukKravetsBasisWin rate · lifetime558 / 1109 vs 233 / 47250.3%49.4%558 / 1109 vs 233 / 472Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.73/Kravets 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 18 · 17:05I. Kozachuk3171950Y. Kravets431121113
LAug 7 · 14:35I. Kozachuk209740Y. Kravets331111113
WAug 1 · 08:35I. Kozachuk331111113Y. Kravets246990
WJul 24 · 16:35I. Kozachuk49881111113Y. Kravets3711114292
WJul 18 · 09:35I. Kozachuk561171611113Y. Kravets5281118962
WJul 3 · 16:35I. Kozachuk341111123Y. Kravets1963100
WJun 19 · 16:35I. Kozachuk3912115113Y. Kravets291041141
LJun 12 · 17:05I. Kozachuk52121471182Y. Kravets561016118113
LJun 5 · 14:35I. Kozachuk551315115112Y. Kravets591513711133
I. Kozachuk10
LOct 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov1.801111117113I. Kozachuk1.9186131112LOct 2 · 16:05I. Kozachuk3.00114681D. Zeniuk1.3691111113LOct 2 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.5012360S. Rak1.501411113LOct 2 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.8311411982D. Shcherbak1.83611911113LOct 2 · 02:00S. Rak1.571111113I. Kozachuk2.254740LOct 2 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.8071150D. Shcherbak1.911113113WOct 2 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.831111113N. Kovalchuk1.838990LOct 1 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.0051030D. Pesternikov1.731112113LOct 1 · 20:30I. Kozachuk3.001177121D. Zeniuk1.3651111143WSep 29 · 10:35D. Shcherbak1.8391030I. Kozachuk1.831112113
Y. Kravets10
WOct 2 · 15:05D. Pesternikov1.614101181Y. Kravets2.2011128113LOct 2 · 14:05Y. Kravets3.2594110D. Zeniuk1.331111133LOct 2 · 13:05S. Rak1.441111123Y. Kravets2.6358100LSep 18 · 19:05Y. Kravets2.5010890D. Shcherbak1.501211113WSep 18 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.6171950Y. Kravets2.201121113WSep 18 · 15:05O. Bindas1.441311861Y. Kravets2.6315811113WSep 18 · 14:05Y. Kravets1.3071111113O. Hura3.05119251WSep 18 · 13:05R. Haiseniuk1.535101131Y. Kravets2.3811126113WSep 12 · 10:35V. Plishylo1.7387111492Y. Kravets2.001111512113LSep 12 · 09:35Y. Kravets3.006580N. Kovalchuk1.361111113
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