TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Kozachuk vs Dmytro Zeniuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1157117111214––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeDmytro Zeniuk to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Dmytro Zeniuk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 78 set 4, 12-14 · our read held Dmytro Zeniuk at 73.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 35–66 Dmytro Zeniuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 35 of their 101 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2373.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Zeniuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-66 in 101
Zeniuk
Correct
gap of 31 in 101, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1794 vs Zeniuk 2016
Zeniuk
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 80% vs Zeniuk 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 70% vs Zeniuk 40%
Kozachuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +1 · Zeniuk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Zeniuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 3.00 / Zeniuk 1.363
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Zeniuk)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13223787
Kozachuk3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 91 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back21% 26 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 70
Zeniuk1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 93 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk1wins
AwayZeniuk9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZeniuk leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachukn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayZeniuk100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk1Zeniuk9n = 10Zeniuk took 9 of 10
S2Kozachuk3Zeniuk7n = 10Zeniuk took 7 of 10
S3Kozachuk2Zeniuk8n = 10Zeniuk took 8 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukZeniukK − ZBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match27.836.5−8.7per matchSweeps17−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukZeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime557 / 1101 vs 346 / 70150.6%49.4%557 / 1101 vs 346 / 701Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZeniukKozachuk 3.00/Zeniuk 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Zeniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zeniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 00:00I. Kozachuk28101350D. Zeniuk381215113
LAug 11 · 10:35I. Kozachuk226880D. Zeniuk331111113
LAug 10 · 18:05I. Kozachuk237880D. Zeniuk331111113
LAug 9 · 22:30I. Kozachuk248790D. Zeniuk331111113
LAug 3 · 17:55I. Kozachuk52813111282D. Zeniuk5611111310113
LAug 1 · 07:05I. Kozachuk157440D. Zeniuk331111113
LJul 31 · 14:35I. Kozachuk4191111822D. Zeniuk46118511113
LJul 31 · 02:00I. Kozachuk227690D. Zeniuk331111113
LJul 28 · 10:35I. Kozachuk178450D. Zeniuk331111113
WJul 24 · 12:05I. Kozachuk341111123D. Zeniuk2789100
I. Kozachuk10
WSep 29 · 10:35D. Shcherbak1.8391030I. Kozachuk1.831112113LSep 29 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.4051111542R. Lazebnyi2.75119811113WSep 29 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.501111113I. Romaniak2.506960WSep 29 · 07:05I. Kozachuk1.10111210113O. Napirko6.507101241WSep 29 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.36511911113D. Neborak3.0011811982WSep 28 · 18:05I. Romaniak2.3811281272I. Kozachuk1.539111110113WSep 28 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.1181111113O. Napirko6.00119641LSep 28 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.8376111162D. Shcherbak1.83111186113LSep 28 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.3811612682S. Rak1.539111011113WSep 28 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.33113911113D. Neborak3.2551111682
D. Zeniuk10
WSep 29 · 09:23N. Danyliuk1.2891111852D. Zeniuk3.50114511113WSep 29 · 07:55B. Kohut1.8051111892D. Zeniuk1.91119811113LSep 29 · 06:55D. Zeniuk3.40891171N. Danyliuk1.3011114113WSep 29 · 05:55A. Molochko1.836911101D. Zeniuk1.8311111123WSep 29 · 04:55D. Zeniuk2.001211123V. Verbyany1.73107100LSep 28 · 15:55V. Verbyany1.801111133D. Zeniuk1.9147110LSep 28 · 14:25N. Danyliuk1.301111113D. Zeniuk3.406980LSep 28 · 12:55A. Molochko1.83111110113D. Zeniuk1.83771261LSep 28 · 11:55B. Kohut1.8371111113D. Zeniuk1.83117861LSep 28 · 01:18D. Zeniuk3.5011981292N. Danyliuk1.286111110113
Upcoming Matches
I. Kozachuk
Oct 1 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.91D. Pesternikov1.80—Oct 2 · 00:00I. Kozachuk1.83N. Kovalchuk1.83—Oct 2 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.80D. Shcherbak1.91—Oct 2 · 02:00I. Kozachuk2.25S. Rak1.57—Oct 2 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.80D. Shcherbak1.91—Oct 2 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.25S. Rak1.57—Oct 2 · 16:05I. Kozachuk3.00D. Zeniuk1.36—Oct 2 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.73Y. Kravets2.00—Oct 2 · 18:05I. Kozachuk1.91D. Pesternikov1.80—
D. Zeniuk
Oct 1 · 23:30D. Zeniuk1.50D. Pesternikov2.50—Oct 2 · 01:30D. Zeniuk1.30N. Kovalchuk3.40—Oct 2 · 03:00D. Zeniuk1.44D. Shcherbak2.63—Oct 2 · 12:05D. Zeniuk1.50D. Pesternikov2.50—Oct 2 · 14:05D. Zeniuk1.33Y. Kravets3.25—Oct 2 · 16:05D. Zeniuk1.36I. Kozachuk3.00—Oct 2 · 17:35D. Zeniuk1.44D. Shcherbak2.63—Oct 2 · 18:35D. Zeniuk1.40S. Rak2.75—
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