TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Pesternikov vs Ivan Kozachuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119611911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:06 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Denys Pesternikov @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Denys Pesternikov at 60.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 156–144 Ivan Kozachuk Ivan Kozachuk has won 144 of their 300 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:0660.5%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.7pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
156-144 in 300
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 12 in 300, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1806 vs Kozachuk 1657
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 149 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 80% vs Kozachuk 20%
Pesternikov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 70% vs Kozachuk 30%
Pesternikov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +1 · Kozachuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Pesternikov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.533 / Kozachuk 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Pesternikov)-4.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260920
Pesternikov1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 227 of 340
Up 2–0, closes it95% 126 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it82% 181 of 220
Kozachuk2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 87 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back20% 27 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov8wins
AwayKozachuk2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov85.7%6 of 7
AwayKozachuk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Kozachuk3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov8Kozachuk2n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Pesternikov8Kozachuk2n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S4Pesternikov4Kozachuk2n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6
S5Pesternikov1Kozachuk2n = 3Kozachuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovKozachukP − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.831.3+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime594 / 1095 vs 558 / 110754.3%50.4%594 / 1095 vs 558 / 1107Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.53/Kozachuk 2.38
Miss
What we said
60.5%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Denys Pesternikov @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 07:05D. Pesternikov331111113I. Kozachuk197840
WOct 2 · 18:05D. Pesternikov511111117113I. Kozachuk3986131112
WOct 1 · 22:30D. Pesternikov341112113I. Kozachuk1851030
WSep 26 · 10:35D. Pesternikov331111113I. Kozachuk238690
WSep 25 · 14:35D. Pesternikov331111113I. Kozachuk175840
LSep 22 · 07:05D. Pesternikov4251212492I. Kozachuk5311101011113
LSep 21 · 14:35D. Pesternikov4311761182I. Kozachuk45911113113
WSep 17 · 22:30D. Pesternikov4071111113I. Kozachuk35118881
WSep 15 · 07:05D. Pesternikov4051113113I. Kozachuk321161141
WSep 14 · 14:35D. Pesternikov3911611113I. Kozachuk32611691
D. Pesternikov10
WOct 6 · 10:55A. Zeniuk2.20612117122D. Pesternikov1.611110811143LOct 6 · 09:55D. Shcherbak3.0012911123D. Pesternikov1.3610114101WOct 6 · 08:25I. Kozachuk2.256660D. Pesternikov1.571111113WOct 6 · 06:25O. Napirko6.0081020D. Pesternikov1.111112113WOct 6 · 04:25I. Romaniak2.389111081D. Pesternikov1.5311612113WOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.10891111113O. Napirko6.5011116652WOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 15:25D. Pesternikov1.53118111092I. Romaniak2.38211612113LOct 5 · 14:25I. Kozachuk2.10611711113D. Pesternikov1.6711911452WOct 5 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.50251111113S. Rak2.5011118832
I. Kozachuk10
WOct 8 · 22:00I. Kozachuk1.801111113O. Pavlyuk1.918730LOct 6 · 10:25I. Romaniak2.509111111113I. Kozachuk1.5011913452WOct 6 · 09:25I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980LOct 6 · 08:25I. Kozachuk2.256660D. Pesternikov1.571111113LOct 6 · 06:55I. Kozachuk2.50111312462A. Zeniuk1.5013111011113LOct 6 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.91101070D. Shcherbak1.801212113LOct 5 · 17:55D. Shcherbak1.831111113I. Kozachuk1.839890LOct 5 · 16:55I. Kozachuk2.635540S. Rak1.441111113WOct 5 · 15:55I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.506990WOct 5 · 14:25I. Kozachuk2.10611711113D. Pesternikov1.6711911452
Upcoming Matches
D. Pesternikov
I. Kozachuk
Oct 8 · 23:00I. Kozachuk1.17O. Hura4.50—Oct 9 · 01:00I. Kozachuk1.53I. Romaniak2.38—Oct 9 · 03:00I. Kozachuk2.20D. Shcherbak1.61—Oct 9 · 12:05I. Kozachuk1.57R. Lazebnyi2.25—Oct 9 · 13:35I. Kozachuk2.00D. Shcherbak1.73—Oct 9 · 15:05I. Kozachuk1.80N. Kovalchuk1.91—Oct 9 · 16:35I. Kozachuk1.80Y. Kravets1.91—Oct 9 · 18:05I. Kozachuk1.91O. Pavlyuk1.80—
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