TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Napirko vs Denys Shcherbak 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118911911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched: 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeDenys Shcherbak to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Napirko above · Denys Shcherbak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Denys Shcherbak at 82.7%
78 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Napirko 1–7 Denys Shcherbak Oleh Napirko has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0682.7%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 0.6pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Shcherbak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-7 in 8
Shcherbak
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Napirko 1536 vs Shcherbak 1804
Shcherbak
Correct
both rated, 268 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Napirko 20% vs Shcherbak 80%
Shcherbak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Napirko 10% vs Shcherbak 60%
Shcherbak
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Napirko -1 · Shcherbak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Shcherbak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNapirko 4.333 / Shcherbak 1.20
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Shcherbak)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13250528
Napirko4.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 60 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 51
Shcherbak1.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 164 of 275
Up 2–0, closes it92% 96 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it77% 131 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNapirko1wins
AwayShcherbak7wins
Shcherbak leads 7–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNapirkon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayShcherbak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Napirko1Shcherbak7n = 8Shcherbak took 7 of 8
S2Napirko3Shcherbak5n = 8Shcherbak took 5 of 8
S3Napirko2Shcherbak6n = 8Shcherbak took 6 of 8
S4Napirko0Shcherbak3n = 3Shcherbak took 3 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away450%
These 8 meetings
MetricNapirkoShcherbakN − SBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match29.635.5−5.9per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNapirkoShcherbakBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 849 vs 375 / 72049.4%52.1%419 / 849 vs 375 / 720Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShcherbakNapirko 4.33/Shcherbak 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Shcherbak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LOct 6 · 11:25O. Napirko37811991D. Shcherbak4111811113
LOct 5 · 11:55O. Napirko2610880D. Shcherbak341211113
LOct 3 · 10:05O. Napirko34911861D. Shcherbak3811511113
LSep 29 · 09:05O. Napirko371451171D. Shcherbak4416116113
LSep 28 · 14:05O. Napirko208660D. Shcherbak331111113
LSep 5 · 11:35O. Napirko259970D. Shcherbak331111113
LAug 28 · 13:05O. Napirko2261060D. Shcherbak341112113
WAug 8 · 11:05O. Napirko361114113D. Shcherbak2771280
O. Napirko10
LOct 6 · 09:25I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.507980WOct 6 · 07:25I. Romaniak1.531141091O. Napirko2.3861112113LOct 6 · 06:25O. Napirko6.0081020D. Pesternikov1.111112113LOct 6 · 05:25A. Zeniuk1.2811611113O. Napirko3.50911861LOct 5 · 18:25D. Pesternikov1.10891111113O. Napirko6.5011116652LOct 5 · 17:25I. Romaniak1.6151111113O. Napirko2.20115971LOct 5 · 15:55I. Kozachuk1.171111113O. Napirko4.506990LOct 5 · 13:55S. Rak1.111111143O. Napirko6.0067120LOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:35S. Rak1.131111113O. Napirko5.504790
D. Shcherbak10
WOct 6 · 09:55D. Shcherbak3.0012911123D. Pesternikov1.3610114101LOct 6 · 07:55A. Zeniuk1.6712811113D. Shcherbak2.101011851WOct 6 · 05:55I. Romaniak2.50771191D. Shcherbak1.5011119113WOct 6 · 04:55I. Kozachuk1.91101070D. Shcherbak1.801212113WOct 5 · 17:55D. Shcherbak1.831111113I. Kozachuk1.839890LOct 5 · 16:25D. Shcherbak3.0011118442D. Pesternikov1.36771111113LOct 5 · 14:55D. Shcherbak2.101188111S. Rak1.6741111133WOct 5 · 13:25D. Shcherbak1.5311911123I. Romaniak2.384117101WOct 5 · 11:55D. Shcherbak1.221211113O. Napirko4.0010880LOct 3 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.3611811113D. Shcherbak3.00711831
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