TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Milos Soukup vs Leon Kolman 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119911118711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:38 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilos Soukup above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Milos Soukup 2–2 Leon Kolman Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 15:3854.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Soukup 1578 vs Kolman 1557
Soukup
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Soukup 80% vs Kolman 20%
Soukup
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Soukup 90% vs Kolman 40%
Soukup
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Soukup +1 · Kolman -3
Kolman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kolman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSoukup 2.10 / Kolman 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Soukup)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13260930
Soukup2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 11 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Kolman1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 94 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it69% 72 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSoukup2wins
AwayKolman2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Soukup2Kolman2n = 4split evenly
S2Soukup1Kolman3n = 4Kolman took 3 of 4
S3Soukup2Kolman2n = 4split evenly
S4Soukup1Kolman2n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSoukupKolmanS − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match35.237.8−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSoukupKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 85 vs 360 / 69550.6%51.8%43 / 85 vs 360 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SoukupSoukup 2.10/Kolman 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 18 · 15:00M. Soukup2476110L. Kolman351111133
WApr 18 · 05:30M. Soukup49119116123L. Kolman42711311102
LFeb 20 · 16:15M. Soukup28661241L. Kolman43111110113
WFeb 4 · 17:18M. Soukup4011126113L. Kolman315101151
M. Soukup10
WOct 8 · 14:15T. Kanka1.73118551M. Soukup2.0091111113LOct 8 · 13:45P. Provaznik1.801211113M. Soukup1.9110870WOct 5 · 16:59M. Soukup1.611111113O. Horak2.209990WOct 5 · 16:00M. Soukup2.1011118113V. Herrmann1.67721171WOct 5 · 14:30F. Kubos2.008111591M. Soukup1.7311917113WOct 5 · 14:00O. Horak2.255101241M. Soukup1.57111210113WSep 19 · 08:14M. Soukup1.3611811113J. Botka3.00711951WSep 19 · 07:15J. Botka2.3887111152M. Soukup1.53111193113WSep 19 · 06:45M. Soukup1.801111113M. Taranko1.916880WSep 19 · 05:45M. Soukup2.10121211113Z. Kuksa1.671410681
L. Kolman10
LOct 8 · 14:45P. Provaznik2.3811116113L. Kolman1.53461191LOct 8 · 13:15T. Kanka2.3811125123L. Kolman1.5351011101LOct 4 · 13:00L. Kolman2.508890M. Hajek1.501111113WOct 4 · 12:00M. Hajek1.83711781L. Kolman1.8311311113LOct 4 · 11:00V. Herrmann2.631111113L. Kolman1.448350LOct 4 · 09:30L. Provaznik1.571231111113L. Kolman2.2514115772WOct 3 · 16:44P. Orlowski1.4411113832L. Kolman2.6365111153WOct 3 · 15:15L. Kolman2.001111113D. Brichacek1.737790LOct 3 · 14:15L. Kolman2.1010270P. Orlowski1.671211103WOct 3 · 13:15L. Kolman1.831111109113J. Juppa1.8387121142
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