TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Provaznik vs Milos Soukup 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118117––––
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 12
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilos Soukup to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Milos Soukup below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 59 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Milos Soukup at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 4–1 Milos Soukup Milos Soukup has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 13:2954.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Provaznik
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1516 vs Soukup 1584
Soukup
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Soukup 100%
Soukup
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 30% vs Soukup 100%
Soukup
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -2 · Soukup +12
Soukup
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Soukup) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Soukup form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.80 / Soukup 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Soukup)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13260974
Provaznik1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 46 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Soukup1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 05)
Won last 12
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog48% won 11 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwaySoukup1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderProvaznik leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySoukup33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik2Soukup3n = 5Soukup took 3 of 5
S2Provaznik2Soukup3n = 5Soukup took 3 of 5
S3Provaznik4Soukup1n = 5Provaznik took 4 of 5
S4Provaznik4Soukup1n = 5Provaznik took 4 of 5
S5Provaznik2Soukup1n = 3Provaznik took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricProvaznikSoukupP − SBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.640.4+2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikSoukupBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 465 vs 42 / 8347.7%50.6%222 / 465 vs 42 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SoukupProvaznik 1.80/Soukup 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Soukup · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WJun 29 · 15:15P. Provaznik4111118113M. Soukup27841141
WMay 20 · 15:00P. Provaznik3851111113M. Soukup32117681
WMay 12 · 16:28P. Provaznik41111126113M. Soukup49811101192
LMay 12 · 14:00P. Provaznik4093111162M. Soukup50111198113
WFeb 4 · 15:45P. Provaznik53991111133M. Soukup44111156112
P. Provaznik10
LOct 7 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.00115121192P. Orlowski1.73711149113LOct 7 · 19:45A. Pavlik1.91117166133P. Provaznik1.809111411112WOct 7 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4414119972P. Provaznik2.631261111113LOct 7 · 17:15V. Herrmann1.731111113P. Provaznik2.006780WSep 30 · 12:38T. Hrstka1.676711101P. Provaznik2.1011113123WSep 30 · 11:30J. Simek1.73914121182P. Provaznik2.001112149113LSep 30 · 11:00P. Provaznik1.9181170T. Hrstka1.801113113LSep 30 · 10:00P. Provaznik2.75611561L. Smazik1.4011811113LSep 25 · 16:13P. Provaznik1.44691151T. Kanka2.6311119113LSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113
M. Soukup10
WOct 8 · 14:15T. Kanka1.73118551M. Soukup2.0091111113WOct 5 · 16:59M. Soukup1.611111113O. Horak2.209990WOct 5 · 16:00M. Soukup2.1011118113V. Herrmann1.67721171WOct 5 · 14:30F. Kubos2.008111591M. Soukup1.7311917113WOct 5 · 14:00O. Horak2.255101241M. Soukup1.57111210113WSep 19 · 08:14M. Soukup1.3611811113J. Botka3.00711951WSep 19 · 07:15J. Botka2.3887111152M. Soukup1.53111193113WSep 19 · 06:45M. Soukup1.801111113M. Taranko1.916880WSep 19 · 05:45M. Soukup2.10121211113Z. Kuksa1.671410681WSep 15 · 17:04M. Soukup1.671111113L. Tuma2.104960
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