TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Chodorski vs Maksymilian Miastowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:26 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePiotr Chodorski to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Chodorski above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Piotr Chodorski at 60.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Chodorski 23–7 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 7 of their 30 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Chodorski beat Miastowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2660.1%Our read38.1%to break even at 2.625
clears by 22.0pp38.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.625 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-7 in 30
Chodorski
Correct
gap of 16 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chodorski 1840 vs Miastowski 1857
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chodorski 60% vs Miastowski 40%
Chodorski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chodorski 30% vs Miastowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chodorski -1 · Miastowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Chodorski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChodorski 2.625 / Miastowski 1.444
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Chodorski)+22.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13254597
Chodorski2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Miastowski1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 109 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it96% 49 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChodorski8wins
AwayMiastowski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChodorski leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChodorski100%5 of 5
AwayMiastowski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chodorski5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Chodorski4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S3Chodorski9Miastowski1n = 10Chodorski took 9 of 10
S4Chodorski5Miastowski2n = 7Chodorski took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChodorskiMiastowskiC − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.936.5+3.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChodorskiMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 414 vs 591 / 114451.2%51.7%212 / 414 vs 591 / 1144Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChodorskiChodorski 2.63/Miastowski 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Chodorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chodorski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski3511111123M. Miastowski358116101
WOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski3741111113M. Miastowski38119991
WMar 25 · 11:40P. Chodorski501161111113M. Miastowski4791161382
WMar 25 · 07:10P. Chodorski4781711113M. Miastowski401115861
LFeb 23 · 15:30P. Chodorski29101360M. Miastowski381215113
WFeb 23 · 07:15P. Chodorski4211911113M. Miastowski29711381
WDec 25 · 18:00P. Chodorski391113153M. Miastowski26211130
WDec 17 · 09:50P. Chodorski331111113M. Miastowski197570
LDec 16 · 12:10P. Chodorski35781281M. Miastowski43111110113
WDec 16 · 06:50P. Chodorski52961511113M. Miastowski50111113782
P. Chodorski10
WOct 7 · 13:45P. Chodorski2.1011811113M. Jadczyk1.67611681LOct 7 · 11:15P. Chodorski1.67513812102D. Michna2.1011111110123WOct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.801191141P. Chodorski1.9151113113LOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WOct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski1.6111111123M. Miastowski2.208116101WOct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski2.0011116113M. Jadczyk1.73661141LOct 7 · 05:40P. Chodorski1.3011671472J. Stecyszyn3.407111112113LOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:00P. Chodorski1.67411681D. Michna2.1011811113LOct 6 · 14:35P. Chodorski1.736850J. Braun2.001111113
M. Miastowski10
WOct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61119571M. Miastowski2.2061111113LOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WOct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00871111113M. Jadczyk1.7311118662LOct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski1.6111111123M. Miastowski2.208116101LOct 7 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.738990D. Michna2.001111113LOct 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.73911119113M. Miastowski2.0011651162LOct 7 · 04:55J. Stecyszyn2.5011119113M. Miastowski1.50781191WOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 6 · 14:10M. Miastowski2.25111311113A. Wiecek1.577111381LOct 6 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.501210118123M. Miastowski2.501012911102
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