TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Tomasch vs Cesta Havrda 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
David Tomasch
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118119811811118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Tomasch to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Tomasch above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 · our read held David Tomasch at 66.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H David Tomasch 1–0 Cesta Havrda Cesta Havrda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2766.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Tomasch
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tomasch 1165 vs Havrda 1026
Tomasch
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tomasch 0% vs Havrda 40%
Havrda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tomasch 10% vs Havrda 40%
Havrda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tomasch -5 · Havrda +1
Tomasch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Tomasch) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomasch form (0%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTomasch 1.40 / Havrda 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Tomasch)-5.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13253308
Tomasch1.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 12 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Havrda2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 16 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTomasch1wins
AwayHavrda0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderTomasch leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTomaschHavrdaT − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match49.047.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTomaschHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 138 vs 101 / 24247.8%41.7%66 / 138 vs 101 / 242Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TomaschTomasch 1.40/Havrda 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Tomasch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tomasch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 7 · 06:30D. Tomasch49111188113C. Havrda4789111182
D. Tomasch10
WOct 7 · 07:00J. Vrba2.50771191D. Tomasch1.5011119113LOct 6 · 08:58J. Grohsgott1.831111113D. Tomasch1.836670LOct 6 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.67611711113D. Tomasch2.1011611782LOct 6 · 07:00L. Novotny1.6161111113D. Tomasch2.20115971LOct 6 · 06:30D. Tomasch2.00691451M. Smesny1.73111112113LSep 26 · 08:58D. Tomasch1.229460J. Cernik4.001111113WSep 26 · 08:00D. Tomasch1.301111113J. Cernik3.408260LSep 26 · 07:30J. Martinek1.7311711133D. Tomasch2.005118111LSep 26 · 06:00D. Tomasch1.67119661L. Novotny2.1091111113LJun 19 · 02:00D. Tomasch2.7511630S. Mazanek1.401311113
C. Havrda10
LOct 7 · 07:30C. Havrda2.201191081M. Smesny1.6161112113WOct 6 · 13:01C. Havrda1.83911811113V. Kubat1.8311911382LOct 6 · 12:00C. Havrda1.611111613102P. Potmesil2.20871115123LOct 6 · 11:30J. Strnad2.381111113C. Havrda1.535980WOct 6 · 10:00C. Havrda1.50111011123V. Kubat2.508123101LOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231LOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113WOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100WSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113
Upcoming Matches
D. Tomasch
Nothing scheduled
C. Havrda
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