TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Belskyi vs Oleksandr Ivchuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Oleksandr Belskyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114511117115––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Belskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Belskyi above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 65 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Oleksandr Belskyi at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Belskyi 6–3 Oleksandr Ivchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4554.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ivchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Belskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belskyi 1626 vs Ivchuk 1710
Ivchuk
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belskyi 100% vs Ivchuk 20%
Belskyi
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belskyi 80% vs Ivchuk 30%
Belskyi
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Belskyi +7 · Ivchuk -2
Belskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Belskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelskyi 1.909 / Ivchuk 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Belskyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13251047
Belskyi1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 13 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog24% won 11 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Ivchuk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 18 days ago (Sep 18) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite73% won 103 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it88% 52 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it81% 75 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBelskyi6wins
AwayIvchuk3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderBelskyi leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelskyi71.4%5 of 7
AwayIvchukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belskyi7Ivchuk2n = 9Belskyi took 7 of 9
S2Belskyi5Ivchuk4n = 9Belskyi took 5 of 9
S3Belskyi3Ivchuk6n = 9Ivchuk took 6 of 9
S4Belskyi5Ivchuk1n = 6Belskyi took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricBelskyiIvchukB − IBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match36.633.3+3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelskyiIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime54 / 126 vs 358 / 52942.9%67.7%54 / 126 vs 358 / 529Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BelskyiBelskyi 1.91/Ivchuk 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Belskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Belskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 13 · 09:05O. Belskyi29118551O. Ivchuk4071111113
LAug 12 · 16:00O. Belskyi206950O. Ivchuk331111113
WMay 16 · 08:20O. Belskyi3811124113O. Ivchuk336101161
LMay 1 · 11:05O. Belskyi48116911112O. Ivchuk46711114133
WApr 17 · 15:10O. Belskyi45611611113O. Ivchuk4111711752
WJan 14 · 13:20O. Belskyi4211812113O. Ivchuk355111091
WJan 13 · 16:20O. Belskyi341112113O. Ivchuk2181030
WSep 30 · 20:50O. Belskyi331111113O. Ivchuk229940
WMay 22 · 12:10O. Belskyi4011117113O. Ivchuk29751161
O. Belskyi10
WSep 23 · 12:20O. Belskyi1.2011711113A. Hrabskyi4.33411791WSep 23 · 10:20O. Kolbasenko1.831110371O. Belskyi1.8371211113WSep 23 · 09:20O. Belskyi1.611111113A. Yurkov2.204540WSep 23 · 08:20V. Chornobab1.53461281O. Belskyi2.38111110113WSep 23 · 06:50O. Belskyi1.8391111113A. Lievshin1.83113931WSep 22 · 18:00A. Hrabskyi1.83711771O. Belskyi1.8311711113WSep 22 · 17:00O. Belskyi2.201111113A. Yurkov1.614740LSep 22 · 16:00O. Belskyi2.38165681I. Hermakivskyi1.53141111113LSep 22 · 14:30O. Belskyi2.208570V. Chornobab1.611111113WSep 22 · 12:30O. Belskyi1.73138115113A. Lievshin2.00111181172
O. Ivchuk10
LSep 18 · 12:20O. Ivchuk4.004890O. Bondarchuk1.221111113LSep 18 · 10:20O. Pavlyuk2.2512118113O. Ivchuk1.571081191WSep 18 · 09:20O. Ivchuk1.831011119113D. Neborak1.8312791192LSep 18 · 08:20O. Zhurba1.2013119113O. Ivchuk4.331151151LSep 17 · 18:30O. Ivchuk1.839840I. Hermakivskyi1.831111113WSep 17 · 16:30D. Neborak1.83117591O. Ivchuk1.8351111113LSep 17 · 15:30O. Ivchuk3.756690O. Bondarchuk1.251111113LSep 17 · 14:30O. Zhurba1.40981114113O. Ivchuk2.75111131272LSep 17 · 13:00O. Ivchuk1.6111119832O. Pavlyuk2.20691111113WAug 21 · 17:44O. Ivchuk1.83211119133D. Neborak1.83118711112
Upcoming Matches
O. Belskyi
O. Ivchuk
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.