Celian Besnier vs Pylyp Koloidenko 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Oct 5Finished

Celian Besnier

Home

1.33

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1210114611118––

Pylyp Koloidenko

Away

3.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:26 and never touched: 63.1% is still 63.1%

Graded at full time

Celian Besnier to win

63.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingCelian Besnier above · Pylyp Koloidenko below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 73 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Celian Besnier at 63.1%

73 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 14:26

63.1%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333

short by 11.9pp

75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.33 (71%)

Besnier

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Form (L5)

Besnier 60% vs Koloidenko 20%

Besnier

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Besnier 50% vs Koloidenko 30%

Besnier

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Besnier -1 · Koloidenko +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Besnier) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Koloidenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBesnier 1.333 / Koloidenko 3.25

Signal prob.63% / 37%

Edge (Besnier)-11.9pp (anti-value)

Challenger Series TT · #13246659

Besnier1.33

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

Koloidenko3.25

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog13% won 2 of 16

Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 13

Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricBesnierKoloidenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 10 vs 46 / 14750%31.3%5 / 10 vs 46 / 147Avg sets wonper match1.81.5per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Besnier

Besnier 1.33/Koloidenko 3.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

63.1%

Besnier · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Besnier won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

C. Besnier10