TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Oleksii Naplokov vs Pylyp Koloidenko 0-3 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 5Finished
Oleksii Naplokov
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611711––––
Pylyp Koloidenko
Away
1.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched: 79.5% is still 79.5%
Graded at full timePylyp Koloidenko to win
79.5%
79.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Naplokov above · Pylyp Koloidenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Pylyp Koloidenko at 79.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Naplokov 0–5 Pylyp Koloidenko Oleksii Naplokov has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5779.5%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 3.8pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Koloidenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Koloidenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naplokov 1459 vs Koloidenko 1378
Naplokov
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naplokov 20% vs Koloidenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naplokov 30% vs Koloidenko 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naplokov -3 · Koloidenko -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% · Strong (leans Koloidenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koloidenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaplokov 4.333 / Koloidenko 1.20
Signal prob.21% / 80%
Edge (Koloidenko)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Challenger Series TT · #13247056
Naplokov4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Koloidenko1.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeNaplokov0wins
AwayKoloidenko5wins
Koloidenko leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaplokovn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKoloidenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naplokov0Koloidenko5n = 5Koloidenko took 5 of 5
S2Naplokov0Koloidenko5n = 5Koloidenko took 5 of 5
S3Naplokov0Koloidenko5n = 5Koloidenko took 5 of 5
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away5100%
These 5 meetings
MetricNaplokovKoloidenkoN − KBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match18.834.0−15.2per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaplokovKoloidenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 62 vs 45 / 14641.9%30.8%26 / 62 vs 45 / 146Avg sets wonper match1.51.5per matchAvg pointsper match30.432.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KoloidenkoNaplokov 4.33/Koloidenko 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.5%
Koloidenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Koloidenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LMar 2 · 14:30O. Naplokov185490P. Koloidenko331111113
LFeb 10 · 11:30O. Naplokov2154120P. Koloidenko361111143
LFeb 9 · 07:30O. Naplokov146350P. Koloidenko331111113
LAug 21 · 07:30O. Naplokov157530P. Koloidenko331111113
LAug 4 · 07:00O. Naplokov2687110P. Koloidenko351111133
O. Naplokov10
LOct 5 · 11:30J. Loffler1.751211113O. Naplokov1.9510460LOct 5 · 09:30S. Happek1.2211911113O. Naplokov4.00711281LOct 5 · 07:30C. Besnier—111111113O. Naplokov—851381WSep 29 · 08:30O. Naplokov1.1411117113K. Waltl5.00691181LSep 29 · 06:30O. Naplokov—721171M. Stefanidis—11114113LSep 28 · 16:00O. Naplokov3.758690S. Happek1.251111113LSep 28 · 12:30O. Naplokov12.0010570I. Bertrand1.011211113WSep 28 · 11:00O. Naplokov1.3311119123A. Moreno3.258811101LSep 28 · 08:30R. Turrini1.071111113O. Naplokov7.506730WSep 28 · 07:00O. Naplokov4.3311127113R. Albuquerque1.205101181
P. Koloidenko10
LOct 5 · 11:00E. Mendes1.051111113P. Koloidenko8.506650LOct 5 · 10:00J. Loffler—11119113P. Koloidenko—811181LOct 5 · 06:30K. Zimmermann1.3311911113P. Koloidenko3.25511291LAug 25 · 08:00P. Koloidenko5.106560E. Huzsvar1.121111113WAug 24 · 17:00P. Koloidenko2.001111113M. Kupfer1.736950WAug 24 · 15:00P. Koloidenko2.00471611123J. Willeke1.731111146102LAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113LAug 24 · 10:30P. Koloidenko4.50611771M. Henninger1.1711811113LAug 24 · 08:30P. Koloidenko1.08167111162A. Moreno7.00181196113LAug 24 · 06:30P. Koloidenko7.506770V. Yefimov1.071111113
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