TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Jeromy Loffler vs Oleksii Naplokov 3-0 · Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TT
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210114116––––
Oleksii Naplokov
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJeromy Loffler to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
1210114116––––
H2H Jeromy Loffler 0–1 Oleksii Naplokov Jeromy Loffler has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2661.7%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
clears by 4.6pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Loffler
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Loffler 1730 vs Naplokov 1465
Loffler
Correct
both rated, 265 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Loffler 60% vs Naplokov 20%
Loffler
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Loffler 50% vs Naplokov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Loffler +2 · Naplokov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Loffler) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naplokov form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLoffler 1.75 / Naplokov 1.95
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Loffler)+4.6pp
Challenger Series TT · #13246660
Loffler1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite89% won 33 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Naplokov1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLoffler0wins
AwayNaplokov1wins
Naplokov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLofflerNaplokovL − NBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match26.040.0−14.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLofflerNaplokovBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 147 vs 26 / 6156.5%42.6%83 / 147 vs 26 / 61Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.030.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LofflerLoffler 1.75/Naplokov 1.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Loffler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Loffler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LFeb 26 · 14:30J. Loffler26112941O. Naplokov4071111113
J. Loffler10
LOct 5 · 13:30J. Loffler—6130M. Aguirre—1111113WOct 5 · 10:00J. Loffler—11119113P. Koloidenko—811181WOct 5 · 08:00S. Happek—11690J. Loffler—1311113LSep 18 · 10:45J. Loffler—8360L. Qiu—1111113LSep 18 · 09:15D. Rinderer—1113113J. Loffler—31140WSep 18 · 07:30D. Zech2.754640J. Loffler1.371111113LSep 17 · 17:30J. Loffler—11119752M. Scharrer—581111113LSep 17 · 16:00E. Mendes—81111113J. Loffler—115871LSep 17 · 14:00D. Rinderer—118118113J. Loffler—51131142WSep 17 · 12:00J. Loffler1.1811134113K. Zimmermann4.152111121
O. Naplokov10
LOct 5 · 13:00O. Naplokov4.336670P. Koloidenko1.201111113LOct 5 · 09:30S. Happek1.2211911113O. Naplokov4.00711281LOct 5 · 07:30C. Besnier—111111113O. Naplokov—851381WSep 29 · 08:30O. Naplokov1.1411117113K. Waltl5.00691181LSep 29 · 06:30O. Naplokov—721171M. Stefanidis—11114113LSep 28 · 16:00O. Naplokov3.758690S. Happek1.251111113LSep 28 · 12:30O. Naplokov12.0010570I. Bertrand1.011211113WSep 28 · 11:00O. Naplokov1.3311119123A. Moreno3.258811101LSep 28 · 08:30R. Turrini1.071111113O. Naplokov7.506730WSep 28 · 07:00O. Naplokov4.3311127113R. Albuquerque1.205101181
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