Karl Zimmermann vs Oleksii Naplokov 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TT

Played Oct 5Finished

Karl Zimmermann

Home

1.11

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

7111171161210––

Oleksii Naplokov

Away

6.00

At publish

Lost last 5

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 5

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:55 and never touched: 84.4% is still 84.4%

Graded at full time

Karl Zimmermann to win

84.4%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingKarl Zimmermann above · Oleksii Naplokov below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-6

Set 4 · 12-10

Point 75 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Karl Zimmermann at 84.4%

75 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 16:55

84.4%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111

short by 5.6pp

90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.11 (84%)

Zimmermann

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Zimmermann 1635 vs Naplokov 1437

Zimmermann

Correct

both rated, 198 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Zimmermann 40% vs Naplokov 0%

Zimmermann

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Zimmermann 50% vs Naplokov 20%

Zimmermann

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Zimmermann -1 · Naplokov -5

Naplokov

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 84% · Strong (leans Zimmermann) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Naplokov form (0%) is below what odds imply (17%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZimmermann 1.111 / Naplokov 6.00

Signal prob.84% / 16%

Edge (Zimmermann)-5.6pp (anti-value)

Challenger Series TT · #13246658

Zimmermann1.11

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

56%takes the first set · 5 of 9

As favourite86% won 19 of 22

Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14

Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17

Naplokov6.00

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 5

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog

Fewer than 10 matches in this role

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricZimmermannNaplokovBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 68 vs 26 / 6455.9%40.6%38 / 68 vs 26 / 64Avg sets wonper match2.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.230.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Zimmermann

Zimmermann 1.11/Naplokov 6.00

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

84.4%

Zimmermann · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Zimmermann won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

K. Zimmermann10