TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vondrak vs Lukas Tonar 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119114––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Lukas Tonar below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 52 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Michal Vondrak at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vondrak 8–10 Lukas Tonar Michal Vondrak has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vondrak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Tonar
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vondrak 1643 vs Tonar 1581
Vondrak
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vondrak 60% vs Tonar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vondrak 50% vs Tonar 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vondrak +3 · Tonar +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vondrak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVondrak 1.727 / Tonar 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vondrak)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243983
Vondrak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 64 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 40 of 56
Tonar2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog41% won 15 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back16% 3 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVondrak7wins
AwayTonar3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVondrak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVondrak100%3 of 3
AwayTonar42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vondrak3Tonar7n = 10Tonar took 7 of 10
S2Vondrak6Tonar4n = 10Vondrak took 6 of 10
S3Vondrak8Tonar2n = 10Vondrak took 8 of 10
S4Vondrak4Tonar3n = 7Vondrak took 4 of 7
S5Vondrak3Tonar1n = 4Vondrak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVondrakTonarV − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.937.3+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVondrakTonarBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 653 vs 123 / 24749%49.8%320 / 653 vs 123 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakVondrak 1.73/Tonar 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 12 · 19:00M. Vondrak331111113L. Tonar217950
WApr 3 · 18:00M. Vondrak50911811113L. Tonar4111811562
LMar 27 · 22:00M. Vondrak2391040L. Tonar341112113
LMar 27 · 19:00M. Vondrak53167121172L. Tonar571811107113
WFeb 22 · 19:00M. Vondrak45311119113L. Tonar4111961142
WDec 28 · 22:00M. Vondrak551511117113L. Tonar4917781162
LDec 28 · 21:30M. Vondrak30851161L. Tonar4011117113
WSep 23 · 20:00M. Vondrak3611311113L. Tonar35911871
WAug 6 · 14:00M. Vondrak331111113L. Tonar257990
WJul 10 · 06:00M. Vondrak4181111113L. Tonar30117481
M. Vondrak10
WOct 5 · 19:30A. Brazda1.577590M. Vondrak2.251111113WOct 5 · 18:00M. Vondrak2.0011116113M. Klement1.73691181WOct 2 · 03:04M. Klement1.8511891162M. Vondrak1.85211116113LOct 2 · 02:00M. Vondrak1.67881161M. Regner2.1011116113LOct 2 · 01:00M. Vondrak1.9111911742M. Klement1.80811811113WOct 2 · 00:00S. Kasnik1.67911881M. Vondrak2.1011611113LOct 1 · 22:30M. Sychra2.10661111123M. Vondrak1.67111188102LSep 26 · 09:30M. Sopko1.5720118113M. Vondrak2.251891151WSep 26 · 08:00M. Vondrak1.67111110143J. Zuzanek2.108912121LSep 26 · 07:30M. Sopko1.731111113M. Vondrak2.007960
L. Tonar10
WOct 5 · 19:00M. Klement1.40111299102L. Tonar2.756101111123WOct 5 · 18:30L. Tonar2.30911911113A. Brazda1.5511611852WSep 13 · 20:59L. Tonar1.6731113113M. Sychra2.101191171LSep 13 · 20:30R. Pacha1.44111111113L. Tonar2.63613771LSep 13 · 19:30L. Tonar2.0099111142J. Tazler1.73111176113WSep 13 · 18:30M. Sychra1.831144101L. Tonar1.8371111123LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680
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