TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vondrak vs Michal Regner 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811116611––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:57 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Michal Vondrak at 56.2%
72 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vondrak 15–9 Michal Regner Michal Regner has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:5756.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vondrak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Vondrak
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vondrak 1621 vs Regner 1561
Vondrak
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vondrak 40% vs Regner 0%
Vondrak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vondrak 30% vs Regner 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vondrak -1 · Regner -8
Regner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vondrak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVondrak 1.666 / Regner 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Vondrak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222575
Vondrak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 64 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Regner2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 113 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVondrak5wins
AwayRegner5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVondrakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRegner50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vondrak2Regner8n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S2Vondrak7Regner3n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10
S3Vondrak5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S4Vondrak5Regner4n = 9Vondrak took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVondrakRegnerV − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.3−1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVondrakRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 649 vs 518 / 107248.8%48.3%317 / 649 vs 518 / 1072Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakVondrak 1.67/Regner 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 09:30M. Vondrak25531161M. Regner4211119113
LSep 19 · 06:30M. Vondrak4511771192M. Regner50911118113
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak4211155113M. Regner399131161
WSep 4 · 08:30M. Vondrak4291111113M. Regner34118871
LAug 28 · 06:00M. Vondrak30111090M. Regner361312113
WJul 30 · 09:30M. Vondrak3961111113M. Regner31117761
WJul 30 · 06:00M. Vondrak45811114113M. Regner4411871172
WJul 15 · 13:29M. Vondrak4181111113M. Regner33118951
LJul 15 · 11:00M. Vondrak32511971M. Regner4211911113
LMay 13 · 13:30M. Vondrak336116101M. Regner4211811123
M. Vondrak10
LOct 2 · 01:00M. Vondrak1.9111911742M. Klement1.80811811113WOct 2 · 00:00S. Kasnik1.67911881M. Vondrak2.1011611113LOct 1 · 22:30M. Sychra2.10661111123M. Vondrak1.67111188102LSep 26 · 09:30M. Sopko1.5720118113M. Vondrak2.251891151WSep 26 · 08:00M. Vondrak1.67111110143J. Zuzanek2.108912121LSep 26 · 07:30M. Sopko1.731111113M. Vondrak2.007960WSep 26 · 06:00M. Vondrak2.5011135113J. Louda1.506111191LSep 25 · 12:58M. Sychra1.917121111113M. Vondrak1.8011148792LSep 25 · 12:00J. Zuzanek2.2012119173M. Vondrak1.6110811151LSep 25 · 11:00V. Vejvoda1.801211113M. Vondrak1.9110560
M. Regner10
LOct 2 · 00:30M. Regner1.808135141M. Sychra1.91111111163LOct 1 · 23:00M. Regner2.206890S. Kasnik1.611111113LOct 1 · 22:00M. Klement1.83111211113M. Regner1.83714651LOct 1 · 02:00S. Kasnik1.611311113M. Regner2.2011480LOct 1 · 00:30M. Regner2.1041020M. Wagner1.671112113LSep 30 · 23:00M. Regner2.507650M. Skakal1.501111113LSep 30 · 22:00J. Tazler1.6181111113M. Regner2.20117651LSep 30 · 09:30M. Regner1.808115101M. Sychra1.9111911123WSep 30 · 08:30J. Zuzanek1.8361490M. Regner1.831116113WSep 30 · 07:30M. Regner2.10111186113V. Vejvoda1.6775111152
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