TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Regner vs Martin Skakal 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:55 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Skakal to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Martin Skakal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Martin Skakal at 66.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 4–8 Martin Skakal Michal Regner has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:5566.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Skakal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Skakal
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1636 vs Skakal 1728
Skakal
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 60% vs Skakal 80%
Skakal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Skakal 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -2 · Skakal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Skakal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skakal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.50 / Skakal 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Skakal)-0.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13216784
Regner2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 112 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back23% 27 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 71
Skakal1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwaySkakal6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkakal leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner50%3 of 6
AwaySkakal75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner6Skakal4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S2Regner2Skakal8n = 10Skakal took 8 of 10
S3Regner5Skakal5n = 10split evenly
S4Regner1Skakal4n = 5Skakal took 4 of 5
S5Regner2Skakal1n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerSkakalR − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.836.9−4.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerSkakalBasisWin rate · lifetime520 / 1070 vs 94 / 17848.6%52.8%520 / 1070 vs 94 / 178Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkakalRegner 2.50/Skakal 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Skakal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skakal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 22:00M. Regner2613580M. Skakal371511113
LSep 23 · 01:30M. Regner28115481M. Skakal3741111113
WSep 18 · 02:30M. Regner46124118113M. Skakal47101191162
WSep 10 · 02:00M. Regner46661111123M. Skakal48111179102
LAug 23 · 22:00M. Regner4616911552M. Skakal531411611113
WAug 14 · 03:28M. Regner371115113M. Skakal2761380
LAug 14 · 00:30M. Regner31129461M. Skakal43101111113
LJul 19 · 00:30M. Regner216690M. Skakal331111113
WMay 24 · 03:30M. Regner331111113M. Skakal112540
LMay 24 · 02:30M. Regner144640M. Skakal331111113
M. Regner10
LSep 30 · 22:00J. Tazler1.6181111113M. Regner2.20117651LSep 30 · 09:30M. Regner1.808115101M. Sychra1.9111911123WSep 30 · 08:30J. Zuzanek1.8361490M. Regner1.831116113WSep 30 · 07:30M. Regner2.10111186113V. Vejvoda1.6775111152WSep 30 · 06:30M. Sychra1.911110111352M. Regner1.808121311113LSep 29 · 03:30M. Regner2.15431181K. Schopf1.6311117113WSep 29 · 02:30K. Schopf1.57711371M. Regner2.2511711113WSep 29 · 01:00M. Sychra2.00911781M. Regner1.7311811113WSep 28 · 23:30M. Regner1.611111133M. Vizek2.2089110WSep 28 · 22:00M. Regner2.001111113V. Dvorak1.736460
M. Skakal10
WOct 1 · 00:00M. Skakal1.441312113S. Kasnik2.63111040WSep 30 · 21:30M. Skakal2.20711117113R. Rose1.6011681162LSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691WSep 30 · 19:00O. Svacha1.61812991M. Skakal2.20111011113WSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal1.611111123O. Cmerda2.2026100WSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal1.501041512113S. Kasnik2.501211131092LSep 29 · 01:30M. Skakal1.6181191142J. Tazler2.20115117113WSep 29 · 00:30S. Kasnik2.1081170M. Skakal1.671113113WSep 28 · 23:30O. Svacha1.57911981M. Skakal2.2511911113LSep 28 · 22:30M. Skakal2.0051090R. Wagner1.731112113
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