TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Skakal vs Sebastian Kasnik 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111210114––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:48 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Skakal to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skakal above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 61 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Martin Skakal at 66.9%
61 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skakal 4–6 Sebastian Kasnik Martin Skakal has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4866.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skakal
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Kasnik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skakal 1738 vs Kasnik 1527
Skakal
Correct
both rated, 211 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skakal 80% vs Kasnik 20%
Skakal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skakal 70% vs Kasnik 10%
Skakal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skakal +2 · Kasnik -4
Kasnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Skakal) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkakal 1.444 / Kasnik 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Skakal)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216975
Skakal1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it86% 24 of 28
Kasnik2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 118 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkakal4wins
AwayKasnik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkakal75%3 of 4
AwayKasnik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skakal4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S2Skakal4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S3Skakal6Kasnik4n = 10Skakal took 6 of 10
S4Skakal4Kasnik2n = 6Skakal took 4 of 6
S5Skakal1Kasnik3n = 4Kasnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkakalKasnikS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.937.5−1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkakalKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 179 vs 470 / 100453.1%46.8%95 / 179 vs 470 / 1004Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkakalSkakal 1.44/Kasnik 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Skakal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skakal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal521041512113S. Kasnik551211131092
WSep 29 · 00:30M. Skakal351113113S. Kasnik2681170
WSep 22 · 20:30M. Skakal331111113S. Kasnik186480
LAug 28 · 01:00M. Skakal4011117832S. Kasnik43731111113
LAug 19 · 23:30M. Skakal2458110S. Kasnik351111133
LAug 18 · 03:30M. Skakal217680S. Kasnik331111113
WAug 17 · 23:00M. Skakal4111811113S. Kasnik33811771
LAug 17 · 20:00M. Skakal497101111102S. Kasnik46111283123
LAug 12 · 01:00M. Skakal32691161S. Kasnik3811115113
LMay 14 · 22:30M. Skakal3251131122S. Kasnik48116119113
M. Skakal10
WSep 30 · 23:00M. Regner2.507650M. Skakal1.501111113WSep 30 · 21:30M. Skakal2.20711117113R. Rose1.6011681162LSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691WSep 30 · 19:00O. Svacha1.61812991M. Skakal2.20111011113WSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal1.611111123O. Cmerda2.2026100WSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal1.501041512113S. Kasnik2.501211131092LSep 29 · 01:30M. Skakal1.6181191142J. Tazler2.20115117113WSep 29 · 00:30S. Kasnik2.1081170M. Skakal1.671113113WSep 28 · 23:30O. Svacha1.57911981M. Skakal2.2511911113LSep 28 · 22:30M. Skakal2.0051090R. Wagner1.731112113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 30 · 22:30M. Wagner1.57111199123S. Kasnik2.25521111102LSep 30 · 17:00A. Brazda1.101116113S. Kasnik5.3071490LSep 30 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.256870A. Brazda1.571111113LSep 30 · 15:30M. Pikous1.40891111113S. Kasnik2.7511117362WSep 30 · 14:00S. Kasnik2.2011811113J. Louda1.61411741LSep 29 · 20:58J. Louda1.611311113S. Kasnik2.2011790LSep 29 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.106340M. Wagner1.671111113LSep 29 · 19:30P. Saleny1.4013911113S. Kasnik2.751111491LSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal1.501041512113S. Kasnik2.501211131092LSep 29 · 00:30S. Kasnik2.1081170M. Skakal1.671113113
Upcoming Matches
M. Skakal
S. Kasnik
Oct 1 · 02:00S. Kasnik1.61M. Regner2.20—Oct 1 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.25J. Louda1.57—Oct 1 · 19:30S. Kasnik1.83J. Hradecky1.83—Oct 1 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.50M. Pikous1.50—Oct 1 · 23:00S. Kasnik1.61M. Regner2.20—Oct 2 · 00:00S. Kasnik1.67M. Vondrak2.10—Oct 2 · 01:30S. Kasnik1.91M. Sychra1.80—Oct 2 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.10M. Klement1.67—
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