TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Mark Robin Wagner vs Sebastian Kasnik 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151129119111210
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMark Robin Wagner above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 91 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 59.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Mark Robin Wagner 5–5 Sebastian Kasnik Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:2259.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1639 vs Kasnik 1535
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 80% vs Kasnik 20%
Wagner
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Kasnik 20%
Wagner
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +3 · Kasnik -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.571 / Kasnik 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Wagner)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216943
Wagner1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 29)
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Kasnik2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 118 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner5wins
AwayKasnik5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner66.7%2 of 3
AwayKasnik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner3Kasnik7n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Wagner4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S3Wagner4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S4Wagner3Kasnik2n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerKasnikW − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.635.3−2.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 202 vs 470 / 100452%46.8%105 / 202 vs 470 / 1004Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.57/Kasnik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 20:00M. Wagner331111113S. Kasnik136340
WSep 9 · 22:00M. Wagner39321111123S. Kasnik42111182102
WAug 27 · 11:00M. Wagner52911118133S. Kasnik47119511112
LAug 27 · 08:59M. Wagner196670S. Kasnik331111113
WAug 27 · 07:00M. Wagner4211119113S. Kasnik35981171
LAug 20 · 02:30M. Wagner33116791S. Kasnik4291111113
LAug 18 · 00:00M. Wagner219750S. Kasnik331111113
WAug 17 · 21:28M. Wagner4471511113S. Kasnik411113981
LAug 17 · 18:30M. Wagner2610970S. Kasnik341211113
LAug 12 · 02:00M. Wagner172780S. Kasnik331111113
M. Wagner10
WSep 30 · 23:30J. Tazler2.207560M. Wagner1.611111113WSep 29 · 21:30P. Saleny1.91111111292M. Wagner1.80119814113WSep 29 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.106340M. Wagner1.671111113WSep 29 · 19:00J. Louda2.006111261M. Wagner1.73111310113LSep 29 · 18:30M. Wagner1.73591161P. Saleny2.0011119113WSep 29 · 17:00M. Wagner1.24111211113J. Zuzanek3.75614941LSep 29 · 16:00M. Pikous1.676121111113M. Wagner2.1011147692WSep 29 · 15:00J. Zuzanek2.38511131192M. Wagner1.53115159113LSep 29 · 14:30M. Wagner1.8311914772P. Saleny1.839111211113LSep 25 · 02:00O. Svacha1.671111113M. Wagner2.101570
S. Kasnik10
LSep 30 · 17:00A. Brazda1.101116113S. Kasnik5.3071490LSep 30 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.256870A. Brazda1.571111113LSep 30 · 15:30M. Pikous1.40891111113S. Kasnik2.7511117362WSep 30 · 14:00S. Kasnik2.2011811113J. Louda1.61411741LSep 29 · 20:58J. Louda1.611311113S. Kasnik2.2011790LSep 29 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.106340M. Wagner1.671111113LSep 29 · 19:30P. Saleny1.4013911113S. Kasnik2.751111491LSep 29 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.20105100J. Louda1.611211123LSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal1.501041512113S. Kasnik2.501211131092WSep 29 · 02:00R. Wagner1.5781111682S. Kasnik2.25116911113
Upcoming Matches
M. Wagner
S. Kasnik
Oct 1 · 00:00S. Kasnik2.63M. Skakal1.44—Oct 1 · 01:00S. Kasnik1.83J. Tazler1.83—Oct 1 · 02:00S. Kasnik1.61M. Regner2.20—Oct 1 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.25J. Louda1.57—Oct 1 · 19:30S. Kasnik1.83J. Hradecky1.83—Oct 1 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.50M. Pikous1.50—Oct 1 · 23:00S. Kasnik1.61M. Regner2.20—Oct 2 · 00:00S. Kasnik1.67M. Vondrak2.10—Oct 2 · 01:30S. Kasnik1.83M. Sychra1.83—Oct 2 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.10M. Klement1.67—
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