TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Sebastian Kasnik vs Jiri Louda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114811117114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:44 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Louda to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jiri Louda @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 67 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Jiri Louda at 58.1%
67 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 28–49 Jiri Louda Sebastian Kasnik has won 28 of their 77 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:4458.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Louda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-49 in 77
Louda
Wrong
gap of 21 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1550 vs Louda 1582
Louda
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 0% vs Louda 60%
Louda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 30% vs Louda 50%
Louda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik -5 · Louda +1
Kasnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Louda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.20 / Louda 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Louda)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216841
Kasnik2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 118 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 155
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 91
Louda1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 177 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it87% 81 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it72% 133 of 185
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik5wins
AwayLouda5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik100%3 of 3
AwayLouda71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik3Louda7n = 10Louda took 7 of 10
S2Kasnik4Louda6n = 10Louda took 6 of 10
S3Kasnik6Louda4n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S4Kasnik3Louda2n = 5Kasnik took 3 of 5
S5Kasnik2Louda1n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikLoudaK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.235.5−3.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 1004 vs 614 / 120246.8%51.1%470 / 1004 vs 614 / 1202Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaKasnik 2.20/Louda 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.1%
Louda · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jiri Louda @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 20:58S. Kasnik2711790J. Louda351311113
LSep 29 · 18:00S. Kasnik25105100J. Louda351211123
WSep 24 · 19:30S. Kasnik331111113J. Louda259880
LSep 22 · 08:30S. Kasnik27651151J. Louda3711114113
LSep 13 · 02:30S. Kasnik165650J. Louda331111113
WSep 10 · 23:00S. Kasnik46841211113J. Louda50111110992
WSep 4 · 06:00S. Kasnik41115311113J. Louda4381111762
WSep 1 · 14:00S. Kasnik3631111113J. Louda30115681
LAug 28 · 03:28S. Kasnik3841111752J. Louda46114911113
WAug 27 · 22:00S. Kasnik331111113J. Louda218580
S. Kasnik10
LSep 29 · 20:58J. Louda1.611311113S. Kasnik2.2011790LSep 29 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.106340M. Wagner1.671111113LSep 29 · 19:30P. Saleny1.4013911113S. Kasnik2.751111491LSep 29 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.20105100J. Louda1.611211123LSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal1.501041512113S. Kasnik2.501211131092WSep 29 · 02:00R. Wagner1.5781111682S. Kasnik2.25116911113LSep 29 · 00:30S. Kasnik2.1081170M. Skakal1.671113113WSep 28 · 23:00S. Kasnik1.801011153133J. Tazler1.911281311112LSep 28 · 22:00O. Svacha1.361111113S. Kasnik3.002250WSep 25 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.0012113113M. Sychra1.731081191
J. Louda10
WSep 29 · 20:58J. Louda1.611311113S. Kasnik2.2011790LSep 29 · 20:30J. Louda1.80118451P. Saleny1.9161111113LSep 29 · 19:00J. Louda2.006111261M. Wagner1.73111310113WSep 29 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.20105100J. Louda1.611211123WSep 28 · 17:30M. Regner1.8361391172J. Louda1.831111118113LSep 28 · 16:30J. Louda1.838470M. Regner1.831111113WSep 28 · 15:00J. Louda1.67114511123J. Tazler2.10811119102WSep 28 · 14:00M. Pikous1.916390J. Louda1.801111113LSep 28 · 02:58M. Pikous2.001111123J. Louda1.7375100LSep 28 · 02:30M. Pikous2.0011711113J. Louda1.73411591
Upcoming Matches
S. Kasnik
Sep 30 · 15:30S. Kasnik2.75M. Pikous1.40—Sep 30 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.25A. Brazda1.57—Sep 30 · 22:30S. Kasnik2.25M. Wagner1.57—Oct 1 · 00:00S. Kasnik2.63M. Skakal1.44—Oct 1 · 01:00S. Kasnik1.83J. Tazler1.83—Oct 1 · 02:00S. Kasnik1.61M. Regner2.20—Oct 1 · 18:00S. Kasnik2.20J. Louda1.61—Oct 1 · 19:30S. Kasnik1.83J. Hradecky1.83—Oct 1 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.50M. Pikous1.50—Oct 1 · 23:00S. Kasnik1.53M. Regner2.38—
J. Louda
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