TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Tazler vs Mark Robin Wagner 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511611––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 51 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 56.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 2–7 Mark Robin Wagner Jakub Tazler has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2856.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Wagner
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1704 vs Wagner 1647
Tazler
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 80% vs Wagner 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 60% vs Wagner 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler +1 · Wagner +4
Wagner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 2.20 / Wagner 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Wagner)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216902
Tazler2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 105 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back15% 9 of 59
Wagner1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeTazler2wins
AwayWagner7wins
3 of 9 to a deciderWagner leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTazler40%2 of 5
AwayWagner100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler5Wagner4n = 9Tazler took 5 of 9
S2Tazler5Wagner4n = 9Tazler took 5 of 9
S3Tazler3Wagner6n = 9Wagner took 6 of 9
S4Tazler2Wagner4n = 6Wagner took 4 of 6
S5Tazler0Wagner3n = 3Wagner took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricTazlerWagnerT − WBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.338.1−0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 752 vs 106 / 20354.7%52.2%411 / 752 vs 106 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerTazler 2.20/Wagner 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 19 · 09:28J. Tazler47111110872M. Wagner48591211113
LSep 19 · 07:00J. Tazler411114971M. Wagner4571611113
LAug 31 · 08:00J. Tazler29311781M. Wagner4011711113
WAug 20 · 00:00J. Tazler351311113M. Wagner2811890
LAug 14 · 02:58J. Tazler49128811102M. Wagner471011113123
LAug 14 · 00:00J. Tazler4599111152M. Wagner42111145113
LJul 23 · 03:30J. Tazler32811761M. Wagner3911611113
LJul 23 · 02:30J. Tazler258890M. Wagner331111113
WJul 20 · 11:30J. Tazler331111113M. Wagner217590
J. Tazler10
WSep 30 · 22:00J. Tazler1.6181111113M. Regner2.20117651LSep 29 · 03:30J. Tazler1.8711871182R. Wagner1.83811112113WSep 29 · 02:30J. Tazler4.00111113113O. Svacha1.22381591WSep 29 · 01:30M. Skakal1.6181191142J. Tazler2.20115117113WSep 29 · 00:00J. Tazler1.91119714113R. Wagner1.80911111282LSep 28 · 23:00S. Kasnik1.801011153133J. Tazler1.911281311112WSep 28 · 16:58J. Tazler1.6713117113M. Pikous2.101161121WSep 28 · 16:00M. Pikous1.8314760J. Tazler1.831611113LSep 28 · 15:00J. Louda1.67114511123J. Tazler2.10811119102LSep 28 · 14:30J. Tazler1.67101161172M. Regner2.10129116113
M. Wagner10
WSep 30 · 22:30M. Wagner1.57111199123S. Kasnik2.25521111102WSep 29 · 21:30P. Saleny1.91111111292M. Wagner1.80119814113WSep 29 · 20:00S. Kasnik2.106340M. Wagner1.671111113WSep 29 · 19:00J. Louda2.006111261M. Wagner1.73111310113LSep 29 · 18:30M. Wagner1.73591161P. Saleny2.0011119113WSep 29 · 17:00M. Wagner1.24111211113J. Zuzanek3.75614941LSep 29 · 16:00M. Pikous1.676121111113M. Wagner2.1011147692WSep 29 · 15:00J. Zuzanek2.38511131192M. Wagner1.53115159113LSep 29 · 14:30M. Wagner1.8311914772P. Saleny1.839111211113LSep 25 · 02:00O. Svacha1.671111113M. Wagner2.101570
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.