TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Skakal vs Radek Rose 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711116118711116
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched: 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Rose to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Skakal above · Radek Rose below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Radek Rose at 57.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skakal 0–1 Radek Rose Martin Skakal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Rose beat Skakal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2757.9%Our read62.5%to break even at 1.60
short by 4.6pp62.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.60 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Rose
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skakal 1717 vs Rose 1719
Rose
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skakal 60% vs Rose 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skakal 60% vs Rose 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skakal -1 · Rose +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Rose) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skakal form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkakal 2.20 / Rose 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Rose)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13224516
Skakal2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back27% 11 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Rose1.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 39 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkakal0wins
AwayRose1wins
Rose leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkakalRoseS − RBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match31.041.0−10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkakalRoseBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 177 vs 159 / 34652.5%46%93 / 177 vs 159 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RoseSkakal 2.20/Rose 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.9%
Rose · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skakal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 30 · 20:00M. Skakal31511691R. Rose4111811113
M. Skakal10
LSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691WSep 30 · 19:00O. Svacha1.61812991M. Skakal2.20111011113WSep 30 · 18:30M. Skakal1.611111123O. Cmerda2.2026100WSep 29 · 03:00M. Skakal1.501041512113S. Kasnik2.501211131092LSep 29 · 01:30M. Skakal1.6181191142J. Tazler2.20115117113WSep 29 · 00:30S. Kasnik2.1081170M. Skakal1.671113113WSep 28 · 23:30O. Svacha1.57911981M. Skakal2.2511911113LSep 28 · 22:30M. Skakal2.0051090R. Wagner1.731112113LSep 28 · 21:30R. Urbaniec1.551111113M. Skakal2.301960WSep 28 · 20:30O. Cmerda1.6787110M. Skakal2.101111133
R. Rose10
WSep 30 · 20:00R. Rose1.8311811113M. Skakal1.83511691WSep 30 · 19:30O. Cmerda1.80611681R. Rose1.9111511113LSep 30 · 18:00R. Rose2.75941191O. Svacha1.4011114113WSep 28 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.45611981R. Rose2.5511911113LSep 28 · 12:30R. Urbaniec2.20831113113R. Rose1.61111181162WSep 28 · 11:30R. Rose1.5711119113F. Pusch2.25691121LSep 28 · 10:30J. Ruzicka1.5051111113R. Rose2.50116981WSep 25 · 20:58R. Rose2.001111910113M. Klimenta1.7369111282WSep 25 · 20:30M. Klimenta1.675680R. Rose2.101111113LSep 25 · 19:30R. Rose1.911110981J. Mecl Jr1.8091211113
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