TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vondrak vs Jiri Louda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161311511119––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Vondrak at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vondrak 3–14 Jiri Louda Michal Vondrak has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:46What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Louda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-14 in 17
Louda
Wrong
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vondrak 1645 vs Louda 1575
Vondrak
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vondrak 20% vs Louda 0%
Vondrak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vondrak 50% vs Louda 20%
Vondrak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vondrak -4 · Louda -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Louda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (0%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVondrak 2.50 / Louda 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Louda)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13194048
Vondrak2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back31% 22 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Louda1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 24)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 177 of 319
Up 2–0, closes it87% 81 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it73% 132 of 182
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVondrak2wins
AwayLouda8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLouda leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVondrak20%1 of 5
AwayLouda80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vondrak5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S2Vondrak4Louda6n = 10Louda took 6 of 10
S3Vondrak2Louda8n = 10Louda took 8 of 10
S4Vondrak4Louda5n = 9Louda took 5 of 9
S5Vondrak1Louda3n = 4Louda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVondrakLoudaV − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.644.0−5.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVondrakLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime316 / 644 vs 610 / 119949.1%50.9%316 / 644 vs 610 / 1199Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaVondrak 2.50/Louda 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 06:00M. Vondrak4011135113J. Louda376111191
LSep 9 · 21:28M. Vondrak391591051J. Louda47131112113
WSep 9 · 19:00M. Vondrak481011511113J. Louda4812811982
LJul 29 · 16:00M. Vondrak4061181142J. Louda49117119113
LJun 14 · 18:00M. Vondrak259790J. Louda331111113
LMay 17 · 18:30M. Vondrak44101111572J. Louda46126611113
LApr 19 · 20:30M. Vondrak381197111J. Louda4051111133
LMar 31 · 14:00M. Vondrak37881561J. Louda46111113113
LMar 22 · 19:00M. Vondrak4113291162J. Louda521111118113
LNov 2 · 22:00M. Vondrak341166111J. Louda4271111133
M. Vondrak10
LSep 25 · 12:58M. Sychra1.917121111113M. Vondrak1.8011148792LSep 25 · 12:00J. Zuzanek2.2012119173M. Vondrak1.6110811151LSep 25 · 11:00V. Vejvoda1.801211113M. Vondrak1.9110560LSep 25 · 10:30M. Vondrak1.80117991M. Sychra1.9171111113WSep 25 · 09:29J. Tazler2.6351171192M. Vondrak1.44119116113LSep 25 · 08:00J. Tazler2.2511911113M. Vondrak1.57911761WSep 25 · 07:00M. Sychra1.83111231192M. Vondrak1.83614119113WSep 25 · 06:30M. Vondrak2.2511127133S. Kasnik1.5761011111WSep 22 · 21:00M. Vondrak1.821191110113S. Kasnik1.8881191222WSep 22 · 20:00M. Vondrak1.801191011113M. Sychra1.9161112782
J. Louda10
LSep 24 · 21:00M. Pikous2.001141110123J. Louda1.73711512102LSep 24 · 20:00J. Louda1.73781171M. Pikous2.0011114113LSep 24 · 19:30S. Kasnik2.201111113J. Louda1.619880LSep 24 · 18:00J. Louda1.80661111112D. Hofman1.91111189133LSep 22 · 09:30J. Louda2.0071111692R. Wagner1.73112911113WSep 22 · 08:30J. Louda1.7311114113S. Kasnik2.00651151LSep 22 · 07:00J. Louda2.00109111182R. Wagner1.73121189113WSep 22 · 06:00J. Zuzanek1.838690J. Louda1.831111113LSep 19 · 21:13J. Tazler4.50561211113J. Louda1.17111110892LSep 19 · 20:30J. Louda1.611111561J. Tazler2.2013911113
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