TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Kateryna Bondarenko vs Yevheniia Severina 0-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711811––––
Yevheniia Severina
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched: 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Yevheniia Severina below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 75.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 1–0 Yevheniia Severina Yevheniia Severina has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2875.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 5.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Bondarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1618 vs Severina 1336
Bondarenko
Wrong
both rated, 282 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 20% vs Severina 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 40% vs Severina 10%
Bondarenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -2 · Severina -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Bondarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.25 / Severina 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Bondarenko)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13230505
Bondarenko1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 81 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Severina3.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog0% won 0 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBondarenko1wins
AwaySeverina0wins
Bondarenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBondarenkoSeverinaB − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.032.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoSeverinaBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 140 vs 16 / 5867.1%27.6%94 / 140 vs 16 / 58Avg sets wonper match2.51.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.933.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.25/Severina 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Severina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 10 · 15:05K. Bondarenko4311119123Y. Severina324711101
K. Bondarenko10
LOct 2 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.4011913542A. Lapa2.755111111113LOct 2 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.834890M. Gordeets1.831111113WOct 2 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.2012411113K. Tymchenko4.331011561LOct 2 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.50711911112A. Gorchakova2.50118118133LSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.30116871A. Lapa3.4051111113LSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113WSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490LSep 26 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.509830V. Shevchuk2.50111163WSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890WSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820
Y. Severina10
LOct 2 · 17:35Y. Severina4.508850M. Gordeets1.171111113LOct 2 · 16:35Y. Severina3.50114841A. Gorchakova1.2891111113WOct 2 · 15:05Y. Severina2.2511118113A. Lapa1.57431161LOct 2 · 13:05Y. Severina2.0061150K. Tymchenko1.731113113LSep 10 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3311911113Y. Severina3.25511831LSep 10 · 17:35Y. Severina2.751169111A. Volgina1.4091111133LSep 10 · 16:35Y. Severina4.50113581M. Gordeets1.1781111113LSep 10 · 15:05Y. Severina2.754711101K. Bondarenko1.4011119123LSep 10 · 13:05Y. Severina4.008760V. Shevchuk1.221111113LJul 3 · 19:35Y. Severina3.0071250V. Shevchuk1.361114113
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