TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Kateryna Bondarenko vs Margarita Gordeets 0-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811911––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Margarita Gordeets below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Margarita Gordeets at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 7–15 Margarita Gordeets Kateryna Bondarenko has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:2054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-15 in 22
Gordeets
Correct
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1635 vs Gordeets 1660
Gordeets
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 40% vs Gordeets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 60% vs Gordeets 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +1 · Gordeets -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gordeets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gordeets form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.833 / Gordeets 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gordeets)-0.6pp
Setka Cup Women · #13230098
Bondarenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Gordeets1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko2wins
AwayGordeets8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko33.3%2 of 6
AwayGordeets100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko6Gordeets4n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarenko4Gordeets6n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S3Bondarenko4Gordeets6n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S4Bondarenko3Gordeets6n = 9Gordeets took 6 of 9
S5Bondarenko0Gordeets4n = 4Gordeets took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoGordeetsB − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.941.4−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoGordeetsBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 139 vs 348 / 58967.6%59.1%94 / 139 vs 348 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.52.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsBondarenko 1.83/Gordeets 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 15:35K. Bondarenko214890M. Gordeets331111113
LSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko4811911982M. Gordeets45311911113
LSep 10 · 19:05K. Bondarenko4487111262M. Gordeets481111510113
LSep 4 · 14:05K. Bondarenko3211411422M. Gordeets49911711113
LAug 29 · 16:35K. Bondarenko29116481M. Gordeets4291111113
WAug 2 · 15:35K. Bondarenko4111118113M. Gordeets29671151
WAug 1 · 13:05K. Bondarenko4011144113M. Gordeets386121191
LJul 31 · 19:05K. Bondarenko4011111171M. Gordeets4691313113
LJul 18 · 16:05K. Bondarenko4581111962M. Gordeets45114811113
LJul 17 · 14:05K. Bondarenko29511671M. Gordeets3911611113
K. Bondarenko10
WOct 2 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.2012411113K. Tymchenko4.331011561LOct 2 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.50711911112A. Gorchakova2.50118118133LSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.30116871A. Lapa3.4051111113LSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113WSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490LSep 26 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.509830V. Shevchuk2.50111163WSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890WSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820WSep 19 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.5011118113A. Volgina2.50571141WSep 19 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.4081111113O. Ivchenko2.75119461
M. Gordeets10
LOct 2 · 14:35M. Gordeets1.2871711652A. Gorchakova3.501115611113LOct 2 · 13:35A. Lapa2.10116119113M. Gordeets1.6731141182WSep 27 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.00711981M. Gordeets1.7311911113WSep 27 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.611111133O. Ivchenko2.2075110LSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780WSep 27 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.50911741M. Gordeets1.281171163WSep 27 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7596120M. Gordeets1.251111143WSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680WSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113LSep 26 · 16:05M. Gordeets1.73117761V. Shevchuk2.0081111113
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