TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Margarita Gordeets vs Oleksandra Ivchenko 3-0 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171151311––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:36 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Margarita Gordeets @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMargarita Gordeets above · Oleksandra Ivchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 58 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Margarita Gordeets at 59.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Margarita Gordeets 68–76 Oleksandra Ivchenko Margarita Gordeets has won 68 of their 144 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 17:36Sent to Pro: Margarita Gordeets @ 1.61 · Won
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
68-76 in 144
Ivchenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 144, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gordeets 1644 vs Ivchenko 1536
Gordeets
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gordeets 80% vs Ivchenko 40%
Gordeets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gordeets 70% vs Ivchenko 50%
Gordeets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gordeets -1 · Ivchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Gordeets) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gordeets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGordeets 1.61 / Ivchenko 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Gordeets)+3.2pp
Setka Cup Women · #13201568
Gordeets1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 108 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it84% 83 of 99
Ivchenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 21 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGordeets6wins
AwayIvchenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGordeets85.7%6 of 7
AwayIvchenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gordeets7Ivchenko3n = 10Gordeets took 7 of 10
S2Gordeets6Ivchenko4n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S3Gordeets3Ivchenko7n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S4Gordeets5Ivchenko3n = 8Gordeets took 5 of 8
S5Gordeets2Ivchenko1n = 3Gordeets took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGordeetsIvchenkoG − IBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.138.4+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGordeetsIvchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 589 vs 330 / 54058.9%61.1%347 / 589 vs 330 / 540Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsGordeets 1.61/Ivchenko 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 26 · 13:35M. Gordeets34811150O. Ivchenko411113173
WSep 12 · 19:35M. Gordeets45111274113O. Ivchenko45910111142
WSep 6 · 16:05M. Gordeets3911116113O. Ivchenko32581181
WSep 5 · 19:35M. Gordeets481111510113O. Ivchenko4379111242
LAug 23 · 19:35M. Gordeets47111181162O. Ivchenko50713118113
LAug 22 · 19:05M. Gordeets368117101O. Ivchenko4111711123
WAug 15 · 19:05M. Gordeets4011711113O. Ivchenko36911881
WAug 1 · 16:05M. Gordeets3912115113O. Ivchenko341051181
WJul 31 · 13:35M. Gordeets331111113O. Ivchenko249780
M. Gordeets10
WSep 27 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.00711981M. Gordeets1.7311911113LSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780WSep 27 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.50911741M. Gordeets1.281171163WSep 27 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7596120M. Gordeets1.251111143WSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680WSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113LSep 26 · 16:05M. Gordeets1.73117761V. Shevchuk2.0081111113WSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113LSep 26 · 13:35M. Gordeets1.80811150O. Ivchenko1.911113173WSep 12 · 19:35O. Ivchenko1.83910111142M. Gordeets1.83111274113
O. Ivchenko10
LSep 27 · 19:05K. Tymchenko3.2511119133O. Ivchenko1.333611111WSep 27 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.637711121O. Ivchenko1.4411118143LSep 27 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.611011811183O. Ivchenko2.20125113162LSep 27 · 12:35A. Gorchakova2.6311511113O. Ivchenko1.44711961LSep 26 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0071070V. Shevchuk1.731112113WSep 26 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25111115482O. Ivchenko1.338131311113LSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490WSep 26 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.33711711113K. Tymchenko3.2511811362WSep 26 · 13:35M. Gordeets1.80811150O. Ivchenko1.911113173LSep 12 · 19:35O. Ivchenko1.83910111142M. Gordeets1.83111274113
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