TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Ksenia Tymchenko vs Oleksandra Ivchenko 3-1 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131169111311––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:17 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandra Ivchenko to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKsenia Tymchenko above · Oleksandra Ivchenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 75 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Oleksandra Ivchenko at 72.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ksenia Tymchenko 16–47 Oleksandra Ivchenko Ksenia Tymchenko has won 16 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Ivchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-47 in 63
Ivchenko
Wrong
gap of 31 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tymchenko 1415 vs Ivchenko 1526
Ivchenko
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tymchenko 20% vs Ivchenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tymchenko 10% vs Ivchenko 50%
Ivchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tymchenko -1 · Ivchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Ivchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTymchenko 3.25 / Ivchenko 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Ivchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13201215
Tymchenko3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 37 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back8% 5 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Ivchenko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 115 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTymchenko2wins
AwayIvchenko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIvchenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTymchenko50%2 of 4
AwayIvchenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tymchenko4Ivchenko6n = 10Ivchenko took 6 of 10
S2Tymchenko3Ivchenko7n = 10Ivchenko took 7 of 10
S3Tymchenko5Ivchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Tymchenko0Ivchenko6n = 6Ivchenko took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTymchenkoIvchenkoT − IBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.2−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTymchenkoIvchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 386 vs 330 / 54034.2%61.1%132 / 386 vs 330 / 540Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IvchenkoTymchenko 3.25/Ivchenko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.5%
Ivchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tymchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 26 · 14:35K. Tymchenko3911811362O. Ivchenko47711711113
LAug 30 · 12:35K. Tymchenko2681080O. Ivchenko341112113
LAug 23 · 13:05K. Tymchenko401291091O. Ivchenko44101112113
LAug 16 · 13:35K. Tymchenko35961191O. Ivchenko4111118113
WJul 31 · 15:35K. Tymchenko391511133O. Ivchenko26132110
WJul 19 · 19:05K. Tymchenko44111345113O. Ivchenko45311111192
LJul 18 · 17:35K. Tymchenko33711781O. Ivchenko3711411113
LJul 11 · 16:35K. Tymchenko259790O. Ivchenko331111113
LJul 10 · 15:35K. Tymchenko371371161O. Ivchenko4615119113
K. Tymchenko10
LSep 27 · 17:05A. Gorchakova1.251111113K. Tymchenko3.758790WSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780LSep 27 · 15:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.2571111113K. Tymchenko1.57117561LSep 27 · 13:35K. Tymchenko2.756980V. Shevchuk1.401111113LSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680LSep 26 · 18:05V. Shevchuk1.40111110113K. Tymchenko2.75961281LSep 26 · 16:35A. Lapa1.401112113K. Tymchenko2.7581080LSep 26 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.33711711113K. Tymchenko3.2511811362LSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890LSep 6 · 18:35K. Tymchenko3.408760A. Gorchakova1.301111113
O. Ivchenko10
LSep 27 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.611111133O. Ivchenko2.2075110WSep 27 · 16:35A. Hordynska-Sheiko2.637711121O. Ivchenko1.4411118143LSep 27 · 14:35V. Shevchuk1.611011811183O. Ivchenko2.20125113162LSep 27 · 12:35A. Gorchakova2.6311511113O. Ivchenko1.44711961LSep 26 · 19:35O. Ivchenko2.0071070V. Shevchuk1.731112113WSep 26 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25111115482O. Ivchenko1.338131311113LSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490WSep 26 · 14:35O. Ivchenko1.33711711113K. Tymchenko3.2511811362WSep 26 · 13:35M. Gordeets1.80811150O. Ivchenko1.911113173WSep 20 · 17:40A. Gorchakova2.63117851O. Ivchenko1.4491111113
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