TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Margarita Gordeets vs Anna Gorchakova 2-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111715116611511
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched: 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMargarita Gordeets above · Anna Gorchakova below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 100 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Margarita Gordeets at 77.4%
100 points played in total.
H2H Margarita Gordeets 58–11 Anna Gorchakova Anna Gorchakova has won 11 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3377.4%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 0.4pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Gordeets
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
58-11 in 69
Gordeets
Wrong
gap of 47 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gordeets 1659 vs Gorchakova 1579
Gordeets
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gordeets 60% vs Gorchakova 80%
Gorchakova
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gordeets 70% vs Gorchakova 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gordeets -1 · Gorchakova +4
Gorchakova
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Gordeets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gorchakova form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGordeets 1.285 / Gorchakova 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Gordeets)-0.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13230424
Gordeets1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 108 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it84% 83 of 99
Gorchakova3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 42 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back14% 12 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGordeets8wins
AwayGorchakova2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGordeets85.7%6 of 7
AwayGorchakova33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gordeets7Gorchakova3n = 10Gordeets took 7 of 10
S2Gordeets6Gorchakova4n = 10Gordeets took 6 of 10
S3Gordeets7Gorchakova2n = 9Gordeets took 7 of 9
S4Gordeets2Gorchakova2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGordeetsGorchakovaGordeets − GorchakovaBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.330.6+6.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGordeetsGorchakovaBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 588 vs 205 / 43859.2%46.8%348 / 588 vs 205 / 438Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsGordeets 1.28/Gorchakova 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.4%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gorchakova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 10 · 12:35M. Gordeets3910111171A. Gorchakova3812132113
WSep 5 · 18:05M. Gordeets331111113A. Gorchakova199460
WSep 4 · 18:05M. Gordeets361211133A. Gorchakova29108110
WAug 23 · 15:35M. Gordeets47951111113A. Gorchakova3511118322
WAug 22 · 16:35M. Gordeets331111113A. Gorchakova249870
LAug 20 · 14:35M. Gordeets401611851A. Gorchakova49141311113
WAug 14 · 15:35M. Gordeets331111113A. Gorchakova205870
M. Gordeets10
LOct 2 · 13:35A. Lapa2.10116119113M. Gordeets1.6731141182WSep 27 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.00711981M. Gordeets1.7311911113WSep 27 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.611111133O. Ivchenko2.2075110LSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780WSep 27 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.50911741M. Gordeets1.281171163WSep 27 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7596120M. Gordeets1.251111143WSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680WSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113LSep 26 · 16:05M. Gordeets1.73117761V. Shevchuk2.0081111113WSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113
A. Gorchakova10
WOct 2 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.50711911112A. Gorchakova2.50118118133WSep 27 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3051111113A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.40119891WSep 27 · 17:05A. Gorchakova1.251111113K. Tymchenko3.758790WSep 27 · 15:35A. Gorchakova4.001111113V. Shevchuk1.229580LSep 27 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.50911741M. Gordeets1.281171163WSep 27 · 12:35A. Gorchakova2.6311511113O. Ivchenko1.44711961LSep 20 · 17:40A. Gorchakova2.63117851O. Ivchenko1.4491111113LSep 20 · 16:35A. Gorchakova3.756950V. Shevchuk1.251111113WSep 20 · 15:35O. Ivchenko1.4411117442A. Gorchakova2.6393111173LSep 20 · 14:35A. Volgina1.441111113A. Gorchakova2.638670
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