TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Yevheniia Severina vs Margarita Gordeets 0-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Yevheniia Severina
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811511––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:30 and never touched: 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeMargarita Gordeets to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYevheniia Severina above · Margarita Gordeets below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Margarita Gordeets at 82.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Yevheniia Severina 4–24 Margarita Gordeets Yevheniia Severina has won 4 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3082.9%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 2.9pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Gordeets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-24 in 28
Gordeets
Correct
gap of 20 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Severina 1340 vs Gordeets 1660
Gordeets
Correct
both rated, 320 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Severina 20% vs Gordeets 60%
Gordeets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Severina 10% vs Gordeets 70%
Gordeets
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Severina -1 · Gordeets +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Gordeets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gordeets form (60%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeverina 4.50 / Gordeets 1.166
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Gordeets)-2.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13230286
Severina4.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog0% won 0 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Gordeets1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 108 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 63 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it84% 83 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeverina2wins
AwayGordeets8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGordeets leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeverina25%1 of 4
AwayGordeets80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Severina4Gordeets5n = 9Gordeets took 5 of 9
S2Severina4Gordeets5n = 9Gordeets took 5 of 9
S3Severina1Gordeets8n = 9Gordeets took 8 of 9
S4Severina2Gordeets4n = 6Gordeets took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeverinaGordeetsS − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match32.538.7−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeverinaGordeetsBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 57 vs 348 / 58928.1%59.1%16 / 57 vs 348 / 589Avg sets wonper match1.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match33.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GordeetsSeverina 4.50/Gordeets 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.9%
Gordeets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gordeets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 10 · 16:35Y. Severina27113581M. Gordeets4181111113
LJan 9 · 14:05Y. Severina2711970M. Gordeets351311113
LSep 27 · 13:05Y. Severina2812880M. Gordeets361411113
LSep 26 · 19:05Y. Severina353111291M. Gordeets4311714113
LAug 8 · 19:05Y. Severina334711111M. Gordeets4211117133
WJul 19 · 16:05Y. Severina45111112113M. Gordeets35781461
Y. Severina10
LOct 2 · 16:35Y. Severina3.50114841A. Gorchakova1.2891111113WOct 2 · 15:05Y. Severina2.2511118113A. Lapa1.57431161LOct 2 · 13:05Y. Severina2.0061150K. Tymchenko1.731113113LSep 10 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3311911113Y. Severina3.25511831LSep 10 · 17:35Y. Severina2.751169111A. Volgina1.4091111133LSep 10 · 16:35Y. Severina4.50113581M. Gordeets1.1781111113LSep 10 · 15:05Y. Severina2.754711101K. Bondarenko1.4011119123LSep 10 · 13:05Y. Severina4.008760V. Shevchuk1.221111113LJul 3 · 19:35Y. Severina3.0071250V. Shevchuk1.361114113LJul 3 · 17:35A. Lapa1.53116311113Y. Severina2.3861111582
M. Gordeets10
WOct 2 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.834890M. Gordeets1.831111113LOct 2 · 14:35M. Gordeets1.2871711652A. Gorchakova3.501115611113LOct 2 · 13:35A. Lapa2.10116119113M. Gordeets1.6731141182WSep 27 · 19:35V. Shevchuk2.00711981M. Gordeets1.7311911113WSep 27 · 18:05M. Gordeets1.611111133O. Ivchenko2.2075110LSep 27 · 16:05K. Tymchenko2.501411113M. Gordeets1.5012780WSep 27 · 14:05A. Gorchakova3.50911741M. Gordeets1.281171163WSep 27 · 13:05A. Hordynska-Sheiko3.7596120M. Gordeets1.251111143WSep 26 · 19:05M. Gordeets1.501111113K. Tymchenko2.506680WSep 10 · 16:35Y. Severina4.50113581M. Gordeets1.1781111113
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