TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Yevheniia Severina vs Anna Lapa 3-1 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Yevheniia Severina
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 14Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 14
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114113811116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:00 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeAnna Lapa to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYevheniia Severina above · Anna Lapa below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Anna Lapa at 60.5%
65 points played in total.
H2H Yevheniia Severina 8–15 Anna Lapa Yevheniia Severina has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0060.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lapa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Lapa
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Severina 1328 vs Lapa 1469
Lapa
Wrong
both rated, 140 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Severina 0% vs Lapa 60%
Lapa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Severina 0% vs Lapa 30%
Lapa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Severina -14 · Lapa +2
Severina
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Lapa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Severina form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSeverina 2.25 / Lapa 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Lapa)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #13230150
Severina2.25
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 14
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog0% won 0 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Lapa1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 32 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSeverina3wins
AwayLapa7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLapa leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSeverina66.7%2 of 3
AwayLapa85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Severina3Lapa7n = 10Lapa took 7 of 10
S2Severina6Lapa4n = 10Severina took 6 of 10
S3Severina4Lapa6n = 10Lapa took 6 of 10
S4Severina2Lapa5n = 7Lapa took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeverinaLapaS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.534.7−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeverinaLapaBasisWin rate · lifetime15 / 55 vs 227 / 45327.3%50.1%15 / 55 vs 227 / 453Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LapaSeverina 2.25/Lapa 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Lapa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Severina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 3 · 17:35Y. Severina4161111582A. Lapa42116311113
LMay 16 · 18:35Y. Severina28511571A. Lapa4011711113
LFeb 6 · 18:05Y. Severina35148851A. Lapa45121111113
LJan 9 · 19:35Y. Severina226880A. Lapa331111113
WSep 26 · 15:05Y. Severina331111113A. Lapa218940
WSep 25 · 17:05Y. Severina4181111113A. Lapa24112831
LSep 6 · 12:35Y. Severina239590A. Lapa331111113
WAug 8 · 15:02Y. Severina4111118113A. Lapa27361171
LJul 25 · 17:05Y. Severina305411101A. Lapa4311119123
LJun 6 · 17:05Y. Severina31711671A. Lapa3911611113
Y. Severina10
LOct 2 · 13:05Y. Severina2.0061150K. Tymchenko1.731113113LSep 10 · 18:35A. Gorchakova1.3311911113Y. Severina3.25511831LSep 10 · 17:35Y. Severina2.751169111A. Volgina1.4091111133LSep 10 · 16:35Y. Severina4.50113581M. Gordeets1.1781111113LSep 10 · 15:05Y. Severina2.754711101K. Bondarenko1.4011119123LSep 10 · 13:05Y. Severina4.008760V. Shevchuk1.221111113LJul 3 · 19:35Y. Severina3.0071250V. Shevchuk1.361114113LJul 3 · 17:35A. Lapa1.53116311113Y. Severina2.3861111582LJul 3 · 15:35O. Bondareva2.5011126153Y. Severina1.5061011131LJul 3 · 14:35Y. Severina1.737490K. Tymchenko2.001111113
A. Lapa10
LOct 2 · 16:05A. Lapa1.36411111082K. Tymchenko3.00113912113WOct 2 · 13:35A. Lapa2.10116119113M. Gordeets1.6731141182WSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.30116871A. Lapa3.4051111113LSep 26 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25111115482O. Ivchenko1.338131311113WSep 26 · 16:35A. Lapa1.401112113K. Tymchenko2.7581080LSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113LSep 26 · 13:05A. Lapa3.40811881V. Shevchuk1.3011311113LSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820LSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113WJul 3 · 17:35A. Lapa1.53116311113Y. Severina2.3861111582
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