TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Kateryna Bondarenko vs Anna Lapa 2-3 · Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup Women
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1159111311511411
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:59 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeKateryna Bondarenko to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKateryna Bondarenko above · Anna Lapa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 · our read held Kateryna Bondarenko at 70.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Kateryna Bondarenko 12–4 Anna Lapa Anna Lapa has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:5970.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bondarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Bondarenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1635 vs Lapa 1439
Bondarenko
Wrong
both rated, 195 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 20% vs Lapa 40%
Lapa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 50% vs Lapa 30%
Bondarenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -1 · Lapa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Bondarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.40 / Lapa 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Bondarenko)-0.7pp
Setka Cup Women · #13230327
Bondarenko1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 81 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it83% 52 of 63
Lapa2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 37 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko7wins
AwayLapa3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBondarenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayLapa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko6Lapa4n = 10Bondarenko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarenko4Lapa6n = 10Lapa took 6 of 10
S3Bondarenko5Lapa5n = 10split evenly
S4Bondarenko4Lapa4n = 8split evenly
S5Bondarenko4Lapa0n = 4Bondarenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoLapaB − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.9+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoLapaBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 139 vs 227 / 45467.6%50%94 / 139 vs 227 / 454Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.40/Lapa 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lapa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko32116871A. Lapa3851111113
WSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko331111113A. Lapa188820
WSep 4 · 18:35K. Bondarenko601771311123A. Lapa571511156102
LAug 16 · 18:35K. Bondarenko30591151A. Lapa3911116113
LAug 7 · 15:05K. Bondarenko239950A. Lapa331111113
WAug 2 · 18:35K. Bondarenko4311129113A. Lapa326101151
WJul 31 · 16:35K. Bondarenko45712114113A. Lapa45111081152
WJul 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko4211117133A. Lapa329111111
WJun 12 · 18:35K. Bondarenko48691111113A. Lapa4311117862
WJun 5 · 16:35K. Bondarenko481141111113A. Lapa4291111382
K. Bondarenko10
LOct 2 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.834890M. Gordeets1.831111113WOct 2 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.2012411113K. Tymchenko4.331011561LOct 2 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.50711911112A. Gorchakova2.50118118133LSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.30116871A. Lapa3.4051111113LSep 26 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.8011911982M. Gordeets1.91311911113WSep 26 · 15:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113O. Ivchenko3.009490LSep 26 · 14:05K. Bondarenko1.509830V. Shevchuk2.50111163WSep 26 · 12:35K. Bondarenko1.221111113K. Tymchenko4.005890WSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820WSep 19 · 17:05K. Bondarenko1.5011118113A. Volgina2.50571141
A. Lapa10
LOct 2 · 16:05A. Lapa1.36411111082K. Tymchenko3.00113912113LOct 2 · 15:05Y. Severina2.2511118113A. Lapa1.57431161WOct 2 · 13:35A. Lapa2.10116119113M. Gordeets1.6731141182WSep 26 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.30116871A. Lapa3.4051111113LSep 26 · 17:35A. Lapa3.25111115482O. Ivchenko1.338131311113WSep 26 · 16:35A. Lapa1.401112113K. Tymchenko2.7581080LSep 26 · 15:05A. Lapa2.201071171M. Gordeets1.6112118113LSep 26 · 13:05A. Lapa3.40811881V. Shevchuk1.3011311113LSep 19 · 18:35K. Bondarenko1.361111113A. Lapa3.008820LSep 19 · 17:35A. Lapa2.75113741O. Ivchenko1.4071111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Bondarenko
Nothing scheduled
A. Lapa
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