TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Martynenko vs Oleksandr Bolnyh 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611311811––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:41 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Martynenko to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Martynenko above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 50 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Oleh Martynenko at 57.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Martynenko 1–1 Oleksandr Bolnyh Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Martynenko beat Bolnyh 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4157.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Martynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Martynenko 853 vs Bolnyh 774
Martynenko
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martynenko 60% vs Bolnyh 20%
Martynenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martynenko 60% vs Bolnyh 40%
Martynenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martynenko -1 · Bolnyh -3
Bolnyh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Martynenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bolnyh form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartynenko 1.615 / Bolnyh 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Martynenko)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229531
Martynenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite40% won 26 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Bolnyh2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 35 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back20% 13 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMartynenko1wins
AwayBolnyh1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMartynenkoBolnyhM − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match31.535.5−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartynenkoBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 321 vs 91 / 20445.2%44.6%145 / 321 vs 91 / 204Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartynenkoMartynenko 1.61/Bolnyh 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Martynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bolnyh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 2 · 05:55O. Martynenko176380O. Bolnyh331111113
WOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko46121111123O. Bolnyh381468101
O. Martynenko10
LOct 2 · 04:25O. Martynenko1.836111161Y. Shcherbak1.8311313113WOct 1 · 17:55O. Martynenko2.50911119113I. Fokin1.5011751182WOct 1 · 16:25O. Martynenko1.1711611113M. Senyk4.50911861LOct 1 · 14:55O. Martynenko1.83106131142Y. Shcherbak1.831211117113WOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko1.67121111123O. Bolnyh2.101468101LOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko1.8012890P. Melnichuk1.911411113WSep 22 · 10:55O. Martynenko1.7311512113Y. Shcherbak2.009111091LSep 22 · 08:55M. Senyk7.001011115113O. Martynenko1.0812621172WSep 22 · 07:55O. Martynenko1.44131310113B. Pyrtyk2.6311111291WSep 22 · 06:55R. Skoropad2.504740O. Martynenko1.501111113
O. Bolnyh10
LOct 2 · 04:55B. Pyrtyk1.3611117123O. Bolnyh3.009911101LOct 1 · 18:55Y. Shcherbak1.171111113O. Bolnyh4.507960LOct 1 · 17:25O. Bolnyh1.6711881162P. Melnichuk2.10511119113WOct 1 · 15:25M. Senyk2.7591511872O. Bolnyh1.401113911113LOct 1 · 13:25O. Martynenko1.67121111123O. Bolnyh2.101468101LOct 1 · 12:25I. Fokin1.251111153O. Bolnyh3.7538130WSep 19 · 11:25V. Sydorchuk2.00814971O. Bolnyh1.73111211113WSep 19 · 09:55O. Bolnyh1.171111113M. Kornijchuk4.505390WSep 19 · 07:55M. Senyk3.005149101O. Bolnyh1.36111211123LSep 19 · 05:55P. Chyzh1.28115116123O. Bolnyh3.50711411102
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.