TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Hohenko vs Yevhen Masko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119118––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hohenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Hohenko above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Serhii Hohenko at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Hohenko 1–2 Yevhen Masko Serhii Hohenko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1554.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Masko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hohenko 1729 vs Masko 1677
Hohenko
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hohenko 40% vs Masko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hohenko 50% vs Masko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hohenko -2 · Masko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hohenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Masko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHohenko 1.909 / Masko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hohenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13229310
Hohenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 12 days ago (Sep 20) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 6 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Masko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 27)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 139 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it99% 86 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it90% 112 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHohenko1wins
AwayMasko2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderMasko leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHohenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayMaskon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hohenko3Masko0n = 3Hohenko took 3 of 3
S2Hohenko2Masko1n = 3Hohenko took 2 of 3
S3Hohenko1Masko2n = 3Masko took 2 of 3
S4Hohenko0Masko3n = 3Masko took 3 of 3
S5Hohenko1Masko2n = 3Masko took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHohenkoMaskoH − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match46.748.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHohenkoMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 72 vs 423 / 74154.2%57.1%39 / 72 vs 423 / 741Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HohenkoHohenko 1.91/Masko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hohenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hohenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 20 · 15:55S. Hohenko49117119113Y. Masko4281131192
LSep 19 · 15:25S. Hohenko4311127852Y. Masko518101111113
LSep 19 · 01:55S. Hohenko48111171182Y. Masko51791113113
S. Hohenko10
LSep 20 · 19:24R. Reznychenko3.50111412113S. Hohenko1.287121471LSep 20 · 18:25S. Hohenko1.833850R. Cherevko1.831111113WSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko1.3691111113E. Pismenniy3.00116461WSep 20 · 15:55S. Hohenko2.00117119113Y. Masko1.7381131192LSep 20 · 13:55S. Hohenko2.757911101A. Tuzhylin1.4011117123WSep 19 · 20:25S. Hohenko1.37131111113R. Reznychenko2.85159861LSep 19 · 18:25R. Cherevko2.00913119113S. Hohenko1.73111161132WSep 19 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.4411861332S. Hohenko2.632111111113LSep 19 · 15:25S. Hohenko1.8311127852Y. Masko1.838101111113WSep 19 · 14:25E. Pismenniy3.2557121482S. Hohenko1.3311111012113
Y. Masko10
WSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102WSep 27 · 17:55R. Reznychenko3.00119871Y. Masko1.3681111113LSep 27 · 16:55Y. Masko2.63771181A. Tuzhylin1.4411117113LSep 27 · 15:55V. Melnik1.731111103Y. Masko2.007770WSep 27 · 14:25Y. Masko1.506111592R. Cherevko2.501191391LSep 26 · 19:55Y. Masko1.501091131R. Cherevko2.5012119113LSep 26 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.4081111113Y. Masko2.75118971WSep 26 · 16:55Y. Masko1.361311113E. Pismenniy3.0011550LSep 20 · 15:55S. Hohenko2.00117119113Y. Masko1.7381131192WSep 19 · 15:25S. Hohenko1.8311127852Y. Masko1.838101111113
Upcoming Matches
S. Hohenko
Y. Masko
Oct 2 · 23:25Y. Masko1.44E. Pismenniy2.63—Oct 3 · 01:25Y. Masko1.67R. Cherevko2.10—Oct 3 · 02:55Y. Masko1.33R. Reznychenko3.25—Oct 3 · 03:55Y. Masko1.83V. Melnik1.83—Oct 3 · 14:25Y. Masko1.33R. Reznychenko3.25—Oct 3 · 15:25Y. Masko1.44E. Pismenniy2.63—Oct 3 · 16:25Y. Masko1.25O. Dukhovenko3.75—Oct 3 · 18:25Y. Masko1.83V. Melnik1.83—Oct 3 · 20:25Y. Masko1.67R. Cherevko2.10—
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