TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Hohenko vs Evgeniy Pismenniy 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911911811––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:16 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Hohenko to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Hohenko above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Serhii Hohenko at 73.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Hohenko 3–0 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:1673.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Hohenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Hohenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hohenko 1724 vs Pismenniy 1505
Hohenko
Wrong
both rated, 219 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hohenko 40% vs Pismenniy 20%
Hohenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hohenko 50% vs Pismenniy 20%
Hohenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hohenko -1 · Pismenniy -4
Pismenniy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Hohenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHohenko 1.333 / Pismenniy 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Hohenko)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229214
Hohenko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 31 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Pismenniy3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHohenko3wins
AwayPismenniy0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderHohenko leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hohenko2Pismenniy1n = 3Hohenko took 2 of 3
S2Hohenko2Pismenniy1n = 3Hohenko took 2 of 3
S3Hohenko1Pismenniy2n = 3Pismenniy took 2 of 3
S4Hohenko2Pismenniy1n = 3Hohenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHohenkoPismenniyH − PBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match46.736.0+10.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHohenkoPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 74 vs 202 / 69254.1%29.2%40 / 74 vs 202 / 692Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HohenkoHohenko 1.33/Pismenniy 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.7%
Hohenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko4291111113E. Pismenniy27116461
WSep 19 · 14:25S. Hohenko5511111012113E. Pismenniy4657121482
WSep 18 · 23:55S. Hohenko43113711113E. Pismenniy3571111242
S. Hohenko10
LOct 2 · 22:55S. Hohenko1.4011118842R. Reznychenko2.75741111113WOct 2 · 21:25S. Hohenko1.911111113Y. Masko1.809980LSep 20 · 19:24R. Reznychenko3.50111412113S. Hohenko1.287121471LSep 20 · 18:25S. Hohenko1.833850R. Cherevko1.831111113WSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko1.3691111113E. Pismenniy3.00116461WSep 20 · 15:55S. Hohenko2.00117119113Y. Masko1.7381131192LSep 20 · 13:55S. Hohenko2.757911101A. Tuzhylin1.4011117123WSep 19 · 20:25S. Hohenko1.37131111113R. Reznychenko2.85159861LSep 19 · 18:25R. Cherevko2.00913119113S. Hohenko1.73111161132WSep 19 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.4411861332S. Hohenko2.632111111113
E. Pismenniy10
LOct 2 · 23:25E. Pismenniy2.63910121282Y. Masko1.4411121010113LOct 2 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44135118113E. Pismenniy2.63111141182LSep 27 · 19:55Y. Masko1.50114118123E. Pismenniy2.50911611102LSep 27 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.111113113E. Pismenniy6.0041190WSep 27 · 17:25V. Melnik1.5711125692E. Pismenniy2.257101111113LSep 27 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.501191011133E. Pismenniy2.50711127112WSep 27 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.2571111992E. Pismenniy1.57117911113LSep 26 · 20:25R. Reznychenko1.91111411113E. Pismenniy1.806121381LSep 26 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63115831R. Cherevko1.4471111113LSep 20 · 17:25S. Hohenko1.3691111113E. Pismenniy3.00116461
Upcoming Matches
S. Hohenko
E. Pismenniy
Oct 3 · 02:25E. Pismenniy2.63R. Cherevko1.44—Oct 3 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.67R. Reznychenko2.10—Oct 3 · 13:25E. Pismenniy2.50O. Dukhovenko1.50—Oct 3 · 15:25E. Pismenniy2.63Y. Masko1.44—Oct 3 · 17:25E. Pismenniy2.38V. Melnik1.53—Oct 3 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63R. Cherevko1.44—Oct 3 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.67R. Reznychenko2.10—
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