TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Stusek vs Anton Veliiev 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1199111012811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Anton Veliiev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 — our read held David Stusek at 57.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H David Stusek 0–2 Anton Veliiev David Stusek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1603 vs Veliiev 1681
Veliiev
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 40% vs Veliiev 20%
Stusek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 50% vs Veliiev 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -1 · Veliiev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veliiev form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.61 / Veliiev 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Stusek)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13203115
Stusek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 24)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 31 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Veliiev2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog33% won 5 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStusek0wins
AwayVeliiev2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderVeliiev leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStusekVeliievS − VBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.548.0−5.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekVeliievBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 199 vs 137 / 23349.8%58.8%99 / 199 vs 137 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.61/Veliiev 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Veliiev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 27 · 06:10D. Stusek381191081A. Veliiev4391112113
LMar 31 · 19:15D. Stusek4714119672A. Veliiev531281111113
D. Stusek10
WSep 27 · 07:10A. Kanak1.73811115132D. Stusek2.00116711153LSep 24 · 17:10D. Stusek1.736117121B. Moravec2.0011211143WSep 24 · 16:10D. Stusek1.5711111113K. Kleprlik2.25116691WSep 24 · 14:40B. Moravec1.50541161D. Stusek2.5011119113LSep 24 · 14:10J. Pribyl1.44118118123D. Stusek2.63811811102LSep 22 · 21:08J. Travnicek1.83971111143D. Stusek1.83111195122LSep 22 · 19:45D. Stusek1.8081140J. Travnicek1.911113113WSep 22 · 18:45D. Stusek1.8012111112113T. Fojtik1.9114341482WSep 22 · 17:45D. Stusek1.2811119113D. Vitasek3.50971171WSep 16 · 20:38D. Stusek1.574111116113A. Cizek2.2511781832
A. Veliiev10
WSep 27 · 06:40J. Skalicky1.53951171A. Veliiev2.3811119113LSep 26 · 08:44A. Veliiev1.834870J. Skalicky1.831111113WSep 26 · 07:45J. Skalicky1.67119111172A. Veliiev2.10131159113LSep 26 · 07:15J. Travnicek1.7311811113A. Veliiev2.00911881LSep 26 · 06:15A. Veliiev2.00911771D. Jr1.7311811113LSep 20 · 13:05O. Stehlik1.671111113A. Veliiev2.103960LSep 20 · 12:35A. Veliiev1.807890J. Ruzicka1.911111113WSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik2.0013112672A. Veliiev1.731161111113LSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250
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